South Point 400 Pick 2026: Why Denny Hamlin Owns Las Vegas Right Now
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Track Preview - the Friday breakdown where we look at the numbers, the history and the pick before Sunday's green flag. No hot takes, just what the data says.
The Short Version
The NASCAR Cup Series runs the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, October 4, with the green flag at 5:30 PM ET on USA. It is 267 laps and 400.5 miles around a 1.5-mile tri-oval, and it is race 31 of 36 - the fifth race of the Chase. Kyle Larson carries a 26-point lead into the weekend, but one driver has won the last two Cup races at this track, and that is where our pick starts.
My Pick to Win
Denny Hamlin - No. 11, Joe Gibbs Racing
He has won the last two Cup races at Las Vegas and carries a 4.4 average finish on intermediate tracks in 2026.
The Track: Why Las Vegas Races the Way It Does
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with 20 degrees of banking in the corners and 9 degrees on both straightaways. The banking is progressive, which is a fancy way of saying the track gets steeper the higher up you go. That one design choice is the whole personality of the place. A driver can run the bottom lane and take the shortest way around, or climb to the wall where the extra banking gives more grip but a longer lap. Both lanes work, which is why you see side-by-side racing here instead of a single-file freight train.
Here is the piece most casual fans miss heading into 2026. NASCAR raised Cup horsepower from 670 to 750 this season, but only at road courses and ovals shorter than 1.5 miles. Las Vegas is exactly 1.5 miles, so it keeps the 670-horsepower intermediate package. Nothing about the car has changed here since last October, which is why anyone building South Point 400 picks 2026 can trust last year's Las Vegas form instead of throwing it out.
The race splits into three stages: 80 laps, then 85 more to the end of lap 165, then a 102-lap run to the finish. That long final stage is where Las Vegas gets decided. Tires give up time over a long green-flag run, and crew chiefs choose between short-pitting for track position and saving a set for the end.
Past Winners and the History Worth Knowing
The South Point 400 has been run since 2018, and the winner list reads like a who's who of drivers who are good when the car is sliding. Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano are the only repeat winners of this specific race. Across all Cup races at Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson leads everybody with four wins, and he is the only driver who ever won three in a row here, taking 2005, 2006 and 2007.
Now to the number that drives this pick. Here are Denny Hamlin's last five Cup starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway:
| Race | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pennzoil 400 | 2 | 1 | 134 |
| 2025 South Point 400 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 2025 Pennzoil 400 | 15 | 25 | 0 |
| 2024 South Point 400 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 2024 Pennzoil 400 | 28 | 8 | 16 |
Look at the two wins and how different they were. In March he started second, led 134 laps and simply had the fastest car. Last October he led only nine laps all day and still beat Kyle Larson, who led 129. One win came from speed, the other from execution. That combination is what you want from a pick.
Who Is Actually Fast Right Now
Kyle Larson comes in off a Kansas weekend where he led 235 of 267 laps and scored a perfect points day. He leads the Chase by 26 points over Hamlin with five races left, and he won this race in 2023. Christopher Bell sat on the pole here in March and won at Darlington in September. William Byron has been quietly excellent on 1.5-mile tracks all year and has not finished outside the top 10 on one.
The Las Vegas NASCAR favorites are easy to spot. Denny Hamlin odds at Las Vegas 2026 and Larson's sit at the top together, trading the number one spot depending on which book you check, with Bell the next name down. That tight top three is why most South Point 400 predictions, and most NASCAR DFS picks for the South Point 400, keep circling the same handful of cars.
My Pick to Win
The pick is Denny Hamlin. Across 12 intermediate races in 2026 he has a 4.4 average finish with a median of third, and on the 1.5-mile tracks specifically his average finish is 2.67 over six starts, which ties the best mark anybody has posted through the first six 1.5-mile races of a season. He has eight straight top-five finishes on 1.5-mile tracks. Add the two most recent Las Vegas wins and a car that has not changed since he won here in March, and this is the cleanest case on the board.
One honest caveat: Larson has been the faster car over the last month and leads the points for a reason. This is a prediction built on a track-specific record, not a guarantee. If Hamlin does win, he becomes only the second driver after Jimmie Johnson to take three straight Cup races at Las Vegas.
Who Else Could Win?
Kyle Larson won the 2023 South Point 400, led 129 laps here last October, and just dominated Kansas on a very similar 1.5-mile layout. Christopher Bell started on the pole at Las Vegas in March, finished fourth, and led a race-high 155 laps in the 2024 South Point 400 without winning it. William Byron finished third here in March and has the second-best intermediate average in the field this season.
The Bottom Line
Las Vegas has not changed its rules package, its banking or its tire this year, and the driver who won the last two races here is still driving the same car for the same team. Sunday is a straightforward test of whether recent form at one specific racetrack still means something in October. Our money says it does.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who wins the South Point 400 2026?
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson sit at the top of the board together. Our pick is Hamlin, who has won the last two Cup races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
What are the best NASCAR picks at Las Vegas this week?
Hamlin on his intermediate record, Larson on current speed, and Byron as the safest top-10 play on a 1.5-mile track.
Is Denny Hamlin good at Las Vegas Motor Speedway?
Yes. He has three Cup wins at the track, including the 2025 South Point 400 and the 2026 Pennzoil 400, and he led 134 laps in the March race.
What time does the South Point 400 start?
The green flag is scheduled for 5:30 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
What channel is the South Point 400 on?
The race airs on USA, with radio coverage on the Performance Racing Network and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
How many laps is the South Point 400?
267 laps and 400.5 miles, split into stages of 80, 85 and 102 laps.
Gear Up for Sunday
If you are pulling for the pick on Sunday, these are in stock right now:
- Denny Hamlin #11 2026 Vegas 61st Cup Win T-Shirt - the shirt from the March win at this track
- Denny Hamlin #11 2025 Vegas Speedway Winner T-Shirt - last October's South Point 400
- Joey Logano #22 2024 South Point 400 Winner T-Shirt
- Kyle Larson #5 2026 Enjoy Illinois 300 Winner T-Shirt
- William Byron Axalta Mesh Snapback Hat
Whoever takes the checkered flag Sunday, we print the win shirt. You can see every new release at the latest arrivals, or let the win shirt subscription send your driver's victory tee without you having to think about it.
