Bahrain GP in Malaysia Pick 2026: Antonelli at Sepang
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Formula 1 Track Preview - the numbers, the records, and our pick to win, three days before lights out. Tomorrow's Race Preview handles the storylines. Today is all data.
The Short Version
Formula 1 goes back to Sepang International Circuit this Sunday for the first time since 2017, and it is doing it under a borrowed name. This is officially the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia, round 16 of 23, after the Bahrain round was moved out of the Gulf and rehomed at Sepang. Lights out is 3:00 AM ET on Sunday, October 4, which is 3:00 PM local time. Nine years of nobody racing here means nobody has real data, and that is exactly why this one is worth setting an alarm for.
My Pick to Win
Andrea Kimi Antonelli - No. 12, Mercedes
Eight wins in 15 races and the best power unit in the field at a circuit where two long straights make deployment decide everything.
The Circuit: 15 Corners, Two Enormous Straights, and Tropical Heat
Sepang was Hermann Tilke's first big Formula 1 commission and it opened in 1999. It is 5.543 km (3.444 miles) of very wide asphalt, between 16 and 22 meters across, which is why it has always produced side-by-side racing. The headline feature is the back straight: 927 meters long, separated from the pit straight by one tight hairpin. Two long full-throttle runs on the same lap is a rare thing on the modern calendar.
The other half of Sepang is weather. It sits near the equator and the afternoon storms are famous. Friday's forecast is above 32C with a real chance of rain, drying out as the weekend goes on, with Sunday currently forecast dry. Even dry, the heat punishes tires, brakes and cooling.
One thing to get straight before Sunday: there is no DRS any more. The 2026 rules replaced it with active aerodynamics, where the front and rear wings change between a low-drag straight mode and a high-downforce corner mode, plus a separate push-to-pass electric boost the FIA now calls Overtake. A driver still has to be within one second to use it, but the help comes from the battery instead of a flapping rear wing. On a circuit with two straights this long, how teams spend and recharge that energy is the whole race.
The Record Book: Vettel's Track, and Three Men Who Can Still Beat It
Nineteen Malaysian Grands Prix were run at Sepang between 1999 and 2017. Sebastian Vettel won four of them (2010, 2011, 2013, 2015), more than anyone. Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso have three apiece. Alonso is the only member of that group still on a Formula 1 grid.
Only three drivers entered this weekend have ever won a Formula 1 race at this circuit: Alonso (2005, 2007, 2012), Lewis Hamilton (2014) and Max Verstappen (2017). That last one is the most recent data point anyone has. Verstappen started third in 2017 and beat Hamilton by 12.7 seconds in a Red Bull.
The records that matter: the race lap record is 1:34.080, set by Vettel in a Ferrari on lap 41 in 2017 at an average of 212.1 km/h. The qualifying record is Hamilton's 1:30.076 from the same weekend. Both have stood for nine years because nobody has had a chance to touch them.
Here is the stat that should temper anyone backing the pole sitter: across 19 races here, the driver on pole converted it into a win just nine times. Sepang's wide track, long straights and weather have always left the door open.
My Pick to Win: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
The pick is Andrea Kimi Antonelli, No. 12 in the Mercedes. Through 15 rounds he has eight wins, six poles, seven fastest laps and 302 points, a 66-point lead over his own teammate George Russell. Mercedes has won 11 of the 15 races and leads the constructors' championship 538 to Ferrari's 378.
The reasoning is simple. Nobody has current-generation data here, so this weekend rewards raw car performance over setup knowledge, and Mercedes has the best car by a wide margin. Two long straights under the 2026 energy rules magnify a power unit advantage rather than hide it. And Antonelli has already proved he does not need track position: he won at Monza from 19th on the grid and came back to fifth at Baku from 16th. On a wide circuit where passing is genuinely possible, that is the profile you want. It is a prediction, not a promise, and a Sepang downpour can erase all of it.
Antonelli's last five races:
| Round | Grand Prix | Start | Finish | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hungarian | 7 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Dutch | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 13 | Italian | 19 | 1 | 25 |
| 14 | Spanish | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| 15 | Azerbaijan | 16 | 5 | 10 |
Who Else Could Win at Sepang?
George Russell is the obvious counter. He won last time out at Baku from pole by under two tenths, he has five poles this season to Antonelli's six, and he drives the identical car. If Saturday goes his way, Sunday probably does too.
Lando Norris has the second-best raw pace in the field when McLaren is on. He won Hungary and Zandvoort back to back, though a 19th at Baku cost him real ground.
Max Verstappen is still winless in 2026, which is the oddest line in the standings, but he finished second at Baku and he is the defending winner of the last race ever held at this circuit. If any track is going to break the streak, a Red Bull circuit with two long straights is a fair guess.
The Bottom Line
Sepang has sat empty on the Formula 1 calendar for nine years, and it is coming back as somebody else's Grand Prix. No team has a single lap of relevant data, the lap record belongs to a car that has not raced since 2017, and the pole sitter here historically wins less than half the time. That is the recipe for a genuinely unpredictable Sunday morning, and it is why the car with the biggest built-in advantage is the smart bet.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia 2026?
Andrea Kimi Antonelli is our pick. He leads the championship by 66 points with eight wins in 15 races, and Mercedes has the strongest power unit at a circuit where straight-line energy deployment matters most.
Why is the Bahrain Grand Prix being held in Malaysia?
The Bahrain and Saudi Arabian rounds were cancelled from their original April dates after the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war. Formula 1, the FIA and the governments of Bahrain and Malaysia agreed to reinstate the race at Sepang under the Bahrain Grand Prix name, with Bahrain keeping the ticket pricing rights and race proceeds.
What time does the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia start?
Lights out is 3:00 AM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, which is 3:00 PM local time at Sepang. Qualifying is Saturday, October 3 at 4:00 AM ET.
Where can I watch Formula 1 in the United States in 2026?
Apple TV is the exclusive United States broadcaster of Formula 1 starting with the 2026 season under a five-year deal, so the race streams there rather than on ESPN.
When was the last Formula 1 race at Sepang?
The 2017 Malaysian Grand Prix on October 1, 2017, won by Max Verstappen for Red Bull. Sunday is the circuit's first Formula 1 race in nine years.
Shop the Story
If you are pulling for the Mercedes garage on Sunday morning, here is what is actually on the shelf right now:
- Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 George Russell 1:2 scale helmet - one left
- Mercedes AMG Petronas polka dot polo in black - X-Large only
- Scuderia Ferrari garage crew tee for the Hamilton and Leclerc side of the fight
- Red Bull Racing Max Verstappen 1:18 model car - the last man to win at Sepang
- McLaren F1 New Era 9Fifty camo cap for the Norris believers
The rest of the Formula 1 rack lives at happyhourracing.com/collections/f1-hats. Check back after the race, because we restock around the winner.
