Dutch Grand Prix Pick 2026: George Russell at Zandvoort
Part of the Happy Hour Racing Formula 1 Track Preview series, where we run the numbers on the circuit before every Grand Prix and make one call on who wins.
The Short Version
Formula 1 comes back from the summer break at Circuit Zandvoort on Sunday, August 23, with lights out at 9:00 a.m. ET on Apple TV. This is the 36th Dutch Grand Prix and the last one on the promoter's current deal, so the orange grandstands get one final F1 weekend. It is also the first Sprint weekend Zandvoort has ever hosted, which means a 24-lap Sprint on Saturday before the 72-lap Grand Prix. If you only remember one number from this whole post, make it this one: all five Dutch Grands Prix since F1 returned in 2021 were won from pole position.
My Pick to Win
George Russell - No. 63, Mercedes
He is the fastest man at Zandvoort so far this weekend, both his 2026 wins came from pole, and this track has never been won from anywhere else in the modern era.
The circuit, and why Zandvoort races the way it does
Zandvoort is short, old and narrow. The lap is 4.259 km, or 2.646 miles, with 14 corners packed into it, running clockwise through sand dunes that were there long before anyone thought about run-off areas. The race is 72 laps and 306.587 km, and it goes by fast.
What saves it as a modern F1 track is the banking. In 2019 the circuit rebuilt Turn 3, the Hugenholtzbocht, and Turn 14, the Arie Luyendijkbocht, as banked corners. Turn 14 runs 18 degrees of bank and fires the cars onto the pit straight carrying real speed, which is the one place here where a pass is genuinely on.
2026 changes the math there. DRS is gone, replaced by active aerodynamics: drivers run Corner Mode for downforce and Straight Mode to open the wings and shed drag. The FIA has set two Straight Mode zones at Zandvoort, the pit straight and the run from Turn 10 to the Turn 11-12 chicane, and it has banned active aero through the banked final corner. Drivers can still use the Overtake battery boost on the banking if they are within a second of the car ahead, but the wings stay shut. The run to the line is less automatic than it used to be, which makes track position worth even more.
Pirelli brought the C2, C3 and C4 as hard, medium and soft. The lap record still belongs to Lewis Hamilton at 1:11.097, from 2021.
Past winners and the Zandvoort record book
The modern history here is short and very one-note. Max Verstappen won the first three after F1 came back in 2021, Lando Norris won in 2024, Oscar Piastri won in 2025. All five started from pole. Nobody has beaten the front row at this circuit in the current era, which is what you would expect from a narrow 14-corner lap with one real passing zone.
Go further back and Jim Clark still holds the record with four Dutch Grand Prix wins, in 1963, 1964, 1965 and 1967. Verstappen sits on three, level with Jackie Stewart and Niki Lauda, and he is the only Dutch driver ever to win his home race. A fourth on Sunday would tie Clark and would be a fitting way to close the place out.
Here is what George Russell has actually done at Zandvoort, which is the part the Dutch Grand Prix picks 2026 crowd tends to skip past:
| Year | Start | Finish | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5 | 4 | Best finish of his last three visits |
| 2024 | 4 | 7 | Lost ground on strategy |
| 2023 | 3 | 17 | Wet race, wrong side of the timing |
| 2022 | 6 | 2 | Beaten only by Verstappen |
| 2021 | 11 | 17 | Gearbox failure in the Williams |
What the numbers say about the 2026 field
Mercedes has won eight of the eleven races run this year and leads the constructors' championship with 379 points to Ferrari's 307 and McLaren's 220. Kimi Antonelli leads the drivers' standings on 219 points with six wins, 50 clear of Lewis Hamilton on 169. Russell is third on 160 with two wins, Charles Leclerc fourth on 138, Lando Norris fifth on 128, and Max Verstappen sixth on 109 without a win all season.
Friday backed all of that up. Russell took Sprint pole with a 1:11.567, his third Sprint pole of the season, and the top four were covered by less than a tenth: Norris +0.041s, Leclerc +0.055s, Piastri +0.099s. Antonelli was fifth, 0.227s down, after sliding into the gravel at the penultimate corner in SQ1 and picking up floor damage. Verstappen was sixth, over half a second off.
GEORGE RUSSELL TAKES #F1SPRINT POLE AT ZANDVOORT!! #F1 #DutchGP
— Formula 1 (@F1) August 21, 2026
On-track photo via Formula 1 (@F1) on X.
My pick to win the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix
George Russell. If you are searching who wins Dutch Grand Prix 2026, the data points at the No. 63 Mercedes and it is not especially close on the evidence available.
Three things stack up. Zandvoort has been a pole track for five straight runnings, and Russell has been the quickest driver here all weekend. Both of his 2026 wins, in Australia and Austria, came from pole, so he converts when he starts up front. And the car under him has won eight of eleven, while Antonelli arrives with floor damage and a session he would rather forget. Add the active aero ban through the banked last corner, which makes the leader harder to catch, and starting first is worth more this year than last.
The honest caveat: Sprint qualifying is not Grand Prix qualifying, and Saturday afternoon sets the actual grid. Rain is in the forecast for Friday and Saturday, with sun and 20C expected Sunday. This is an informed prediction built on the numbers, not a guarantee.
Who else could win
Kimi Antonelli. He leads the championship with six wins and has been the best driver in F1 this season. If Mercedes repairs the floor and he qualifies on the front row Saturday, he is the pick, not Russell.
Lando Norris. McLaren brought upgrades to Hungary, Norris won there from pole, and he was 0.041s off Russell on Friday. He also already knows how to win at Zandvoort, having done it in 2024.
Max Verstappen. Sixth on Friday and winless in 2026, so the numbers do not love him. The counter-argument is that he has won this race three times, he is at home, and a wet Saturday would flatten the gap between the Red Bull and the Mercedes in a hurry.
The Bottom Line
Zandvoort has never given this race to anyone who did not start on pole, and it is closing the door after Sunday. Whoever leads into Tarzan on lap one is very likely the person holding the trophy at the end of the last Dutch Grand Prix.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Dutch Grand Prix 2026?
George Russell is our pick. He took Sprint pole at Zandvoort on Friday, both of his 2026 wins came from pole, and Mercedes has won eight of the first eleven races. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli is the obvious threat.
Is George Russell good at Zandvoort?
His record is mixed but improving. He finished second in 2022 and fourth in 2025, with a gearbox failure in 2021 and a bad wet race in 2023 in between. This is by far the best car he has brought here.
What time does the Dutch Grand Prix start?
Lights out is 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday, August 23, 2026. The Sprint runs Saturday, August 22 at 6:00 a.m. ET, with Grand Prix qualifying at 10:00 a.m. ET.
What channel is the Dutch Grand Prix on?
In the United States, every session of the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix weekend airs on Apple TV through its dedicated F1 channel.
Why is 2026 the last Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort?
The promoter chose not to continue hosting the race beyond 2026, so this is the final Dutch Grand Prix under the current agreement with Formula 1.
Shop the Dutch Grand Prix
If you are riding with our pick this weekend, we have real F1 gear in stock and ready to ship:
- Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 George Russell 1:2 Scale Helmet - the centerpiece piece for a Russell fan.
- Red Bull Racing F1 Max Verstappen RB16B Dutch GP 1:18 Model Car - the actual car he won the 2021 Dutch Grand Prix in.
- Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team x Mad Dog Jones Hamilton Ball Cap - for the Hamilton side of the garage.
- McLaren F1 Lifestyle New Era 9Fifty Camo Baseball Hat - if you think Norris or Piastri turns this into a McLaren weekend.
- F1 McLaren Racing Shadow Beanie Hat - papaya without the papaya.
More in the Formula 1 collection, and you can check the rest of the season on our Formula 1 schedule and standings page.
