Dollar Tree 301 Pick 2026: Ryan Blaney at New Hampshire
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Track Preview, where we go through the numbers on Sunday's race before anybody turns a lap. Track facts, past winners, and our Dollar Tree 301 picks for 2026.
The Short Version
The Cup Series runs the Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this Sunday, August 23. It is 301 laps around a flat 1.058-mile oval, and it is the second-to-last race of the regular season, so the drivers sitting on the playoff bubble are out of excuses. Track officials moved the green flag up one hour to 2 p.m. ET on Sunday because of expected weather, and it is on USA. Ryan Blaney won here last year and leads the betting board again.
My Pick to Win
Ryan Blaney - No. 12, Team Penske
He is the defending winner here and his average finish on short tracks this season is 6.0, the best of any track type he runs.
The Magic Mile Is a Mile That Races Like a Short Track
New Hampshire is a mile long on paper, but it does not drive like one. The banking is only 2 to 7 degrees in the corners and 1 degree down the straights, which makes it the flattest oval the Cup Series visits. Flat means no help from the track. At Bristol or Daytona the banking holds the car in the corner for you. Here the tires do all of it.
That changes how the whole race feels. Drivers get to the corner carrying speed, hit the brakes hard, wait for the car to rotate, then get back to the gas. Two long straights and two tight corners is why fans call the shape a paperclip. It also means track position matters more than almost anywhere else. Passing is hard, clean air is worth a lot, and a good pit stop can be worth more than a fast car.
Add the 2026 rules to that. Every track 1.5 miles and shorter now runs 750 horsepower instead of 670, paired with the low-downforce short-track aero kit. More power, less grip, on the flattest track on the schedule. The cars should move around under the drivers all afternoon.
Past Winners at New Hampshire and the History Worth Knowing
The Magic Mile has a habit of rewarding the same names. Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick share the all-time record with four Cup wins each. Denny Hamlin leads active drivers with three. Christopher Bell has won here twice since 2022, which is why he keeps showing up near the top of the New Hampshire NASCAR favorites every summer. If you make NASCAR picks at New Hampshire off track history, this list is where you start.
There is a fun one buried in the list too. Joey Logano won here in 2009 at 19 years old, which made him the youngest Cup Series winner at the time. He is a New England kid and he has two wins at his home track. He also just won at Richmond last weekend.
Here is Ryan Blaney's own record at the track over the last five races, which is a more complicated story than the win last year suggests.
| Year | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | 1 | 116 |
| 2024 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| 2023 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| 2022 | 11 | 18 | 0 |
| 2021 | 7 | 5 | 64 |
Source: DriverAverages, New Hampshire Motor Speedway results.
Who Is Actually Fast Right Now
Denny Hamlin leads the standings with five wins. Joey Logano has won two of the last four races. Christopher Bell has spent 2026 finishing second, with seven runner-up results. Chase Briscoe sits fifth in points. If you are building NASCAR DFS picks for the Dollar Tree 301, Josh Berry is worth a look at his price after finishing second here last year.
Weather is the wild card. Sunday's schedule got moved up an hour because rain is in the forecast, and a shortened race at a track this hard to pass on would freeze track position in place.
Due to impending inclement weather, officials have announced that Sunday's Dollar Tree 301 NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been moved up one hour to 2 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 23.
- New Hampshire Motor Speedway (@NHMS) August 21, 2026
My Pick to Win: Ryan Blaney
If you are only here for one answer to who wins the Dollar Tree 301 in 2026, it is Blaney. Start with the report card above: across six short-track races in 2026 his average finish is 6.0 and his median is fourth, better than his numbers on intermediates, superspeedways, or road courses. He won at Phoenix, ran second at Bristol, and finished third at Iowa after leading 129 laps. That is the profile of a driver who is good at exactly the kind of racing New Hampshire produces.
Then add the track itself. He won here last September from the outside pole and led 116 of 301 laps, including the final 39. That is not a fluke win off a late restart, that was speed all day. He is second in points, he sat on the pole at Richmond last week, and the Ryan Blaney odds at New Hampshire in 2026 have him as the outright favorite at +450. As he put it in Ford's race preview, "It's a place I've always enjoyed."
The honest counterweight is in that table above. Before last year Blaney had three straight rough runs here, finishing 18th, 22nd and 25th. So this is not a driver with a decade of Magic Mile dominance. It is a prediction, not a promise. But the current car, the current form, and the current package all point the same direction.
Who Else Could Win?
Denny Hamlin has three wins at New Hampshire, more than any other active driver, and he leads the championship standings by 115 points. Christopher Bell has won here twice since 2022 and a track that rewards repeat winners is exactly where a driver stuck on runner-up finishes finally breaks through. Joey Logano is a two-time winner at his home track and just won at Richmond, and Penske speed at flat tracks has been real all season.
The Bottom Line
New Hampshire is a flat mile where the track gives you nothing and the guy with clean air usually keeps it. Add 750 horsepower, a low-downforce car, rain in the forecast, and a playoff cutline that closes in two weeks, and Sunday should be tense from the drop of the green. Of all the Dollar Tree 301 predictions you will read this week, ours is the simple one: Blaney has the speed and the recent history here. The rest of them have two races left to save their season.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Dollar Tree 301 in 2026?
Ryan Blaney is the betting favorite at +450 and he is our pick, because he won this race last year and owns a 6.0 average finish on short tracks in 2026.
Is Ryan Blaney good at New Hampshire?
He is now. Blaney won here in 2025 from the outside pole and led 116 laps, but before that he had three straight finishes of 18th or worse at the track.
What time does the Dollar Tree 301 start?
Green flag is 2 p.m. ET on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Track officials moved it up one hour from the original 3 p.m. start because of expected weather.
What channel is the Dollar Tree 301 on?
USA Network, with radio coverage on PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
How many laps is the Dollar Tree 301?
301 laps for 318.458 miles, broken into stages of 70, 115, and 116 laps.
Riding with Blaney on Sunday? We have his gear in stock right now.
- Ryan Blaney #12 2026 Quaker State 400 Atlanta Win T-Shirt
- Ryan Blaney #12 2025 New Hampshire 301 Win T-Shirt, the shirt from the race he is defending
- Ryan Blaney #12 Menards Vintage Patch Black Hat
- Christopher Bell #20 Magic Mile Master New Hampshire Win T-Shirt
- Denny Hamlin #11 2026 All-Star Winner T-Shirt
- Joey Logano #22 2026 North Wilkesboro Winner T-Shirt
Not sure who to back yet? Browse the full driver collections and pick your side before Sunday. New track previews go up every Friday.
