Cook Out 400 Pick 2026: Denny Hamlin at Richmond Raceway
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Friday Track Preview - where we look at the numbers behind the next Cup race and make a call on who wins. Facts first, then the pick.
The Short Version
The NASCAR Cup Series runs the Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Green flag is 7:00 PM ET on USA, and it is 400 laps around a flat three-quarter-mile oval, or 300 miles. This is race 24 of 36, so the playoff cut line is close enough now that every driver outside the top 16 is racing like it is October. If you want one reason to watch, it is this: Richmond wears tires out, and the drivers who save them get to pass people at the end.
My Pick to Win
Denny Hamlin - No. 11, Joe Gibbs Racing
He has five Richmond wins, the best average finish at the track among active drivers, and a 4.6 average finish on short tracks in 2026.
What Makes Richmond Race the Way It Does
Richmond is 0.75 miles around with 14 degrees of banking in the corners, 8 degrees on the front straight and 2 degrees on the back. That is flat by NASCAR standards. Flat means the car does not get help from the track holding it down, so grip has to come from the tires, and tires give up.
That is the whole story here. Goodyear brings a short-track tire built to lose lap time over a run, the same combination the Cup cars used at Martinsville in March and North Wilkesboro last month. A car that is fast on lap 5 of a run can be a sitting duck on lap 45. Crew chiefs have to decide whether to take four tires and drive up through traffic or take two and hold track position, and they have to make that call five or six times in one night.
Richmond is also on the 2026 short-track package. Cup engines make 750 horsepower here instead of 670, and the cars run the three-inch rear spoiler with fewer diffuser strakes. More power and less downforce is the combination NASCAR picked on purpose to make the cars harder to drive.
One number worth holding onto for your Richmond NASCAR favorites: 54 percent of all Cup wins at this track have come from a top-five starting spot. Qualifying matters more here than fans think.
Past Winners at Richmond and the History Worth Knowing
Richmond has been on the Cup schedule since 1953, and the all-time win record still belongs to Richard Petty with 13. Among drivers still racing, Denny Hamlin leads with five wins and 2,367 laps led. Austin Dillon has won the last two Cup races here, which nobody had circled going in either year.
Here is the part that matters for the pick. This is Hamlin's last five starts at Richmond, and the finishes are not flukes.
| Year | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2025 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Aug 2024 | 1 | 2 | 124 |
| Mar 2024 | 11 | 1 | 17 |
| Jul 2023 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| Apr 2023 | 11 | 20 | 71 |
Drivers to Watch Saturday Night
Denny Hamlin comes in leading the standings with 923 points and four wins. Ty Gibbs is second at 820 and won last Sunday at Iowa, his second win of the year after Bristol. Ryan Blaney sits third at 813. Those three have been the class of the short-track races all season.
Track conditions are the wild card. Richmond starts in daylight and finishes under the lights, and the grip changes the whole way.
My Pick to Win the Cook Out 400
The pick is Denny Hamlin, No. 11. He has an 8.25 average finish at Richmond, the best of any active driver, and five wins here. In 2026 he is averaging a 4.6 finish on short tracks with a best of second, and he has not finished worse than ninth on one all year. He also grew up in Chesterfield, about 20 minutes from the front gate, and he has led more laps at Richmond than any other active driver by a wide margin. When the tires fall off late, the guy who has run 37 Cup races at a place usually knows something the field does not.
That is a prediction, not a promise. Richmond has handed out two straight surprise winners.
Who Else Could Win?
Ty Gibbs. He has the best short-track average finish in the whole field this season at 2.8, with wins at Bristol and Iowa. His Richmond record is thin, a 17.7 average in six starts, but nothing about how he is driving right now looks like that number.
Austin Dillon. He has won the last two Cook Out 400s. Whatever Richard Childress Racing keeps finding at this place, it has not gone away.
Christopher Bell. An 8.7 average finish in 10 Richmond starts with four top fives, and he was second at Iowa last week.
The Bottom Line
Richmond does not reward the fastest car. It rewards the car that still has tires with 30 to go. Watch the long green-flag runs, not the restarts, and you will see the winner coming before the broadcast does.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Cook Out 400 2026?
Our pick is Denny Hamlin, who has five Richmond wins and the best average finish at the track among active drivers.
Is Denny Hamlin good at Richmond Raceway?
Yes. In 37 Cup starts at Richmond he has five wins, six runner-up finishes, an 8.25 average finish and 2,367 laps led, more than any other active driver.
What time does the Cook Out 400 start?
Green flag is 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, August 15, 2026.
What channel is the Cook Out 400 on?
USA Network, with radio coverage on MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
How many laps is the Cook Out 400?
400 laps, or 300 miles, broken into stages ending on lap 70, lap 230 and lap 400.
Gear for Saturday Night
If you are pulling for the pick, or for the guy who keeps winning this race, here is what is in stock right now.
- Denny Hamlin #11 2024 Owners 400 at Richmond Win T-Shirt
- Austin Dillon #3 2025 Cook Out 400 Richmond Win T-Shirt
- Austin Dillon #3 2024 Cook Out 400 Richmond Win T-Shirt
- Christopher Bell #20 2025 Bristol Night Winner T-Shirt
- Ryan Blaney #12 2026 Phoenix Win T-Shirt
Want the shirt for whoever actually wins Saturday night? That is what the win shirt fan club is for. Or just browse the newest gear in the store.
