Milwaukee Mile Pick 2026: Josef Newgarden in Saturday's Snap-on Makers and Fixers 250
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing IndyCar Track Preview - the Friday post where we skip the noise and look at the numbers. Track data, past winners, and one pick to win.
The Short Version
IndyCar runs its only doubleheader of the 2026 season this weekend at the Milwaukee Mile, a 1.015-mile flat oval in West Allis, Wisconsin. Race 1, the Snap-on Makers and Fixers 250, goes 250 laps on Saturday, August 29, with FOX coverage starting at 2:30 p.m. ET and the green flag right around 2:50. These are rounds 16 and 17 of 18, and Alex Palou can wrap up a fifth championship here. The reason to watch is simple: this is the last real oval test of the year, and five cars are starting Saturday nine spots back.
My Pick to Win
Josef Newgarden - No. 2, Team Penske
He has won both short-oval races in 2026, and unlike Palou, McLaughlin and Malukas, he does not have a nine-place grid penalty on Saturday.
The Track: 9.25 Degrees Is the Whole Story
The Milwaukee Mile is 1.015 miles around with four turns and only 9.25 degrees of banking in those turns. The straights are almost dead flat at 2.5 degrees. That number matters more than anything else here. On a high-banked oval the track itself holds the car down and drivers can run wide open. At Milwaukee they cannot. Drivers have to lift, the car moves around underneath them, and the racing line spreads out into two and three lanes.
That is why this place gets described as an oval that drives like a road course. It rewards a driver who can manage a loose car over a long run instead of one who just has the fastest single lap. Over 250 laps and 253.75 miles, tire falloff and traffic decide it. The track opened on September 11, 1903, which makes it the oldest operating motor speedway in the world. IndyCar first raced here in 1937, left after 2015, and came back in 2024.
Two format notes worth knowing. Qualifying is single car, two laps, and both laps count: the first lap sets Saturday's grid and the second sets Sunday's. And there is no push-to-pass here. IndyCar's overtake button is a road and street course tool. On ovals the hybrid system runs with unlimited activation and a cap of 135 kilojoules of deployment per lap, so every car has the same energy to play with every time around.
Past Winners at the Milwaukee Mile
Christian Rasmussen is the defending winner. He took his first career IndyCar victory here in 2025, in his 30th start, after Alex Palou led 199 laps and could not close it out. Before that, the 2024 doubleheader went to Pato O'Ward on Saturday and Scott McLaughlin on Sunday. Five past Milwaukee winners are entered this weekend.
Here is the honest version of my pick's record at this track. Josef Newgarden has not finished a Milwaukee race the way his speed says he should:
| Year | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| 2024 Race 2 | 1 | 27 | 4 |
| 2024 Race 1 | 11 | 26 | 0 |
He put it on pole for Race 2 in 2024 and did not complete five laps. He wrecked out of Race 1. Those are incidents, not a speed problem. That distinction is the whole basis of the pick.
The Penalty That Reshuffles Saturday
INDYCAR announced Friday that five entries take nine-place grid penalties for Race 1 after unapproved engine changes. Team Penske's No. 3 (Scott McLaughlin) and No. 12 (David Malukas), Chip Ganassi Racing's No. 10 (Alex Palou) and Juncos Hollinger Racing's Nos. 76 (Rinus VeeKay) and 77 (Sting Ray Robb) all drop nine spots.
Read that list again. It takes out the driver who led 199 laps here last year, the driver who won the 2024 Sunday race, and one of the best short-oval runners in the series. That is a big deal on a flat mile where track position is hard to recover.
My Pick to Win: Josef Newgarden
If you are looking for Milwaukee Mile picks 2026 built on numbers rather than name recognition, Newgarden is the one. He has won both short-oval races on this year's schedule: Phoenix on March 7 and Gateway on June 7. Nobody else on the grid has won more than one oval race in 2026. Of his 34 career victories, 15 have come on ovals shorter than 1.5 miles, and six of those are at Gateway alone, a track that asks the same question Milwaukee does about managing a car with not much banking to lean on.
Add the grid situation. Newgarden's No. 2 is not on the penalty list, so he starts where he qualifies while three of the fastest cars here start nine back. He sits sixth in points with 376, which means he is racing for wins, not a championship. Nothing about this is a lock, and his last three Milwaukee starts produced a seventh and two wrecks. But when you ask who wins IndyCar Milwaukee 2026, the pace data and the starting grid point the same direction.
Who Else Could Win?
Alex Palou (No. 10). He was the fastest car here last year by a mile: pole, 199 laps led, beaten only by a late Rasmussen charge. He has six wins in 15 races this season. The nine-spot penalty is the only thing keeping him off the top of my card.
Christian Rasmussen (No. 21). The defending winner, and he did it by being there at the end while faster cars used up their tires. Ed Carpenter Racing has always been an oval program first.
Kyle Kirkwood (No. 27). He led 128 of 147 laps to win in Washington, D.C. last week and sits second in the standings, 91 back. If he is going to make the finale interesting, it starts here.
The Bottom Line
Milwaukee is 250 laps of a car that never feels planted, on the oldest race track still running anywhere. Palou can clinch the title this weekend, and a podium in both races with one lap led does it. But on Saturday he starts nine spots back and Josef Newgarden does not. That is the race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Snap-on Makers and Fixers 250 in 2026?
My pick is Josef Newgarden. He is the only driver to win both short-oval races in 2026, and he avoided the nine-place grid penalty that hits Palou, McLaughlin and Malukas on Saturday.
Is Josef Newgarden good at the Milwaukee Mile?
He has the speed but not the results. He took pole for the 2024 Sunday race and finished 27th, wrecked out of the Saturday race, and came home seventh in 2025.
What time does the IndyCar race at Milwaukee start?
FOX coverage of Race 1 begins at 2:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 29, with the green flag around 2:50 p.m. ET. Race 2 follows Sunday, August 30, with coverage from 1 p.m. ET.
What channel is the Milwaukee IndyCar race on?
Both races are on FOX, with streaming on FOX ONE and in-car cameras on HBO Max.
Can Alex Palou clinch the IndyCar championship at Milwaukee?
Yes. He leads by 91 points with three races left and needs to leave Milwaukee with a lead of more than 54. Podium finishes in both races plus one lap led would do it regardless of what anyone else does.
IndyCar Gear
If the doubleheader gets you in the mood for some IndyCar gear, here is what is in stock right now:
