Spanish GP Pick 2026: Antonelli at Madrid's New Madring
Part of the Happy Hour Racing Formula 1 Track Preview series, where we dig into the circuit data, the record book, and the numbers behind our pick to win.
The Short Version
Formula 1 races in Madrid on Sunday for the first time since 1981, on a circuit that did not exist a year ago. The Madring is a 5.414 km hybrid of city streets and purpose-built road, 22 corners long, and it has no lap record, no past winners, and no form book. That makes this the hardest race of the year to call and the most interesting one to try. Lights out is 9:00 AM ET.
My Pick to Win
Andrea Kimi Antonelli - No. 12, Mercedes
He topped Friday practice, Mercedes handled the front-left graining better than anyone, and he has seven wins in thirteen races.
The Madring: a circuit nobody has raced
The Madring is built around the IFEMA exhibition centre on the north-east side of Madrid. Part of it runs on public roads, part of it is purpose-built, which makes it a hybrid in the same way Miami is. It becomes the 81st track to host a World Championship Grand Prix and the sixth Spanish circuit to hold this race.
The lap splits into three clear pieces. Sector one is fast and ends in a 200-metre braking zone into Turn 1. The middle is medium and low speed and contains the headline corner. The final third is a run of 90-degree turns that drivers have compared to Baku. Two tunnels pass under an elevated motorway, and there is real elevation change, which is rare for a street layout.
The corner everyone came to see is Turn 12, La Monumental. It is a 550-metre banked semicircle named for the Las Ventas bullring, banked at 24 percent, which works out to roughly 13.5 degrees. It is the longest banked corner in Formula 1 and it puts the highest vertical load on a tyre of any corner all season. Pirelli has brought its C2, C3 and C4 compounds, and the asphalt is brand new and very smooth, which means grip is low.
No past winners here, so here is the record book
There is no track history to lean on at the Madring, so the useful history is the race itself. The Spanish Grand Prix has been run 55 times. Lewis Hamilton and Michael Schumacher share the record with six wins each, and Ferrari leads all constructors with twelve. Max Verstappen has four. Oscar Piastri won the last one, at Barcelona in 2025.
One quirk worth knowing: Barcelona still has a race in 2026, but it is now called the Barcelona Grand Prix, and Hamilton won it in June. The Spanish Grand Prix name moved to Madrid.
Madrid's own F1 history is the Circuito del Jarama, which held nine championship rounds between 1968 and 1981. The last one is still one of the great finishes in the sport. Gilles Villeneuve started seventh in a Ferrari that was slow everywhere except the straights, led from lap 14, and held off a four-car train to the flag. The top five finished within 1.240 seconds of each other.
Since our pick has no Madring record, here is what he has actually done in the last five races:
| 2026 Round | Start | Finish | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| British GP | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Belgian GP | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| Hungarian GP | 7 | 3 | 15 |
| Dutch GP | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| Italian GP | 19 | 1 | 25 |
What Friday practice actually told us
Practice on a new track is worth more than usual, because it is the only data anyone has. George Russell led FP1 with a 1m34.077s, and Antonelli went quickest in FP2 with a 1m33.662s, 0.113s clear of Charles Leclerc. Lewis Hamilton was third, only 0.036s behind his team mate. Racing Bulls rookie Arvid Lindblad was fourth before putting it in the wall at Turn 13 and bringing out a red flag. Max Verstappen was sixth.
The number that matters more than the lap times is tyre wear. Track temperature went past 50C and the long left-handers, La Monumental included, chewed the front-left tyre with graining. Russell joked after FP1 that a six-stop race would have been quickest. It settled down in FP2, but teams are still planning around three stops if the graining holds. Mercedes and Red Bull managed it best. McLaren lost most of the day, with Lando Norris parked after two laps with a gearbox problem.
Our first day on track in Madrid complete. Bring on Quali day.
- Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team (@MercedesAMGF1) September 11, 2026
Mercedes at the Madring on Friday. Photos: Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team, via X.
My Pick to Win: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli is the pick. He leads the championship with 267 points, 66 clear of Russell, and he has seven wins in thirteen races in a year where nobody else has more than two. Mercedes leads the constructors' championship 468 to Ferrari's 346, and the W17 has been the best car at almost every kind of circuit this season.
The specific reason for this weekend is the tyre. The Madring's defining problem is front-left graining, and Mercedes was one of the two teams that managed it cleanly on Friday while also being fastest over one lap. That combination is what wins races on a track with no reference data. Add that he won at Monza last time out after starting 19th, and the form is about as good as it gets. This is a prediction, not a guarantee, and a brand-new circuit is exactly where predictions go wrong.
Who else could win?
Charles Leclerc. He was 0.113s off Antonelli in FP2 and Ferrari looked quick in the slow final sector. Ferrari has more Spanish Grand Prix wins than any team, twelve.
Lewis Hamilton. Third on Friday and six Spanish Grand Prix wins already, tied with Schumacher for the most ever. A low-grip street-style layout has historically suited him.
George Russell. He topped FP1 and never got a clean soft-tyre lap in FP2, so his Friday reads worse than his actual pace. Two wins this season.
FP2 comes to a close in Madrid.
- Scuderia Ferrari (@ScuderiaFerrari) September 11, 2026
The Bottom Line
Every driver on the grid arrived in Madrid with the same amount of information, which is none. Fifty-seven laps around a smooth, low-grip layout with a banked corner nobody has ever raced, on tyres that were graining by Friday lunchtime. Whoever wins Sunday is going to have earned it with tyre management, not qualifying pace. Our money is on the 19-year-old who has already won seven times this year.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Spanish Grand Prix 2026?
Championship leader Andrea Kimi Antonelli is our pick, after he topped Friday practice at the Madring and Mercedes handled the front-left tyre graining better than most of the field.
Is the Madring a good track for Antonelli?
Nobody has a record here, since this is the first Formula 1 race at the Madring, but Antonelli set the fastest lap of Friday practice at 1m33.662s and leads the championship by 66 points.
What time does the Spanish Grand Prix start?
Lights out is Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET, which is 3:00 PM local time in Madrid. The race is 57 laps and 308.4 km.
How long is the Madring circuit?
The Madring is 5.414 km, or 3.364 miles, with 22 corners and a top speed of around 340 kph.
When did Formula 1 last race in Madrid?
1981, at the Circuito del Jarama, where Gilles Villeneuve beat four cars to the line by 1.240 seconds in one of the closest finishes in F1 history.
Shop the Story
If you are pulling for the Silver Arrows on Sunday, or for anyone else on the grid, here is what we have in stock right now:
- Mercedes AMG Petronas Formula One Team Polka Dot Polo, Black
- Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 George Russell 1:2 Scale Helmet
- Scuderia Ferrari Garage Crew T-Shirt, Special Edition
- McLaren F1 Lifestyle New Era 9Fifty Camo Baseball Hat
- Formula 1 Tech Limited Edition Belgian GP Hat, White
More caps and team gear live in the Formula 1 collection. New pieces land every week.
