Sao Paulo GP Pick 2026: Max Verstappen at Interlagos This Sunday
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Formula 1 Track Preview - the Friday post where we go through the numbers at this weekend's circuit and make one call on who wins. No hot takes, just the data.
The Short Version
Formula 1 is at the Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace in Sao Paulo this Sunday for the 2026 Sao Paulo Grand Prix, better known to most fans as the Brazilian Grand Prix. It is 71 laps around the shortest proper road course left on the calendar, it almost always rains on somebody, and Kimi Antonelli has already wrapped up the drivers' title. That does not make this one a parade, because Mercedes can clinch the constructors' championship here and four drivers are still fighting over second place. Our Sao Paulo GP picks 2026 call is below, and it is the driver with the best record at this circuit of anyone in the field.
My Pick to Win
Max Verstappen - No. 1, Red Bull
Three Interlagos wins, a podium in five of his last six starts here, and three wins in the last four races of 2026.
Interlagos by the Numbers
Interlagos is 4.309 kilometres, or 2.677 miles, which makes a lap here about half the length of a lap at Spa. Fifteen corners, run counter-clockwise, and almost none of it is flat. The track sits roughly 800 metres above sea level, the second highest stop on the 2026 calendar behind Mexico City, so the air is thin and the cars run skinnier wings than the corner speeds would normally ask for.
Two things are different about this year's race. Pirelli brought its three softest compounds, the C3 as hard, the C4 as medium and the C5 as soft, which is one full step softer than the 2025 allocation. Fresh asphalt was also laid between Turns 3 and 5 and between Turns 8 and 9. Softer rubber on newer surface usually means higher degradation and a two-stop race, and the teams spent Friday trying to work out how much.
The 2026 cars also change how passing works here. There is no DRS any more. Drivers run active aero with a low-drag Straight Line Mode on the straights and a high-downforce setting through the corners, plus an electrical Override boost for attacking. Interlagos has two Straight Line Mode zones, and the activation point on the first one gets shortened in the wet. If you want the full explanation of that system, we broke it down in F1 active aero explained.
What the Last 10 Winners at Interlagos Tell You
Sunday is the 43rd Formula 1 race at this circuit since 1973. Michael Schumacher has the most wins here with four. Sebastian Vettel, Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen all sit on three. Pole position has converted into a win in 11 of the last 20 races here, which sounds strong until you look at the two races that did not follow that script.
Here is the Verstappen record at Interlagos, and it is the single best argument for the pick. Starting position has barely mattered to him at this place.
| Year | Start | Finish | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | 3 | Podium from 19th on the grid |
| 2024 | 17 | 1 | Won from 17th in the wet |
| 2023 | 1 | 1 | Pole to flag |
| 2022 | 3 | 6 | Mercedes ran away with it |
| 2021 | 2 | 2 | Beaten by Hamilton's charge from 10th |
What Friday Already Told Us
Lando Norris topped first practice ahead of Antonelli and Verstappen. Antonelli flipped it in second practice with Norris second and Verstappen third again. Three cars, two teams, and barely anything between them on a damp-then-dry Friday.
Lando and Kimi were fastest on Friday. #BrazilGP
- Formula 1 (@F1) November 6, 2026
The championship numbers are settled at the top and wide open underneath. Antonelli clinched the drivers' title in Mexico City on 380 points and became the youngest champion in the sport's history. Verstappen is second on 261, Hamilton third on 259, George Russell fourth on 250 and Charles Leclerc fifth on 245. That is 16 points covering four drivers with four races left. In the constructors' fight, Mercedes lead on 630 from Ferrari on 504 and Red Bull on 382, and Mercedes seal their first constructors' title since 2021 if they outscore Ferrari by three points this weekend.
My Pick to Win: Max Verstappen
Verstappen is the Interlagos F1 favorite on form and on history. He has won three Brazilian Grands Prix, he has finished on the podium in five of his last six starts here, and the two he did not win from the front he still salvaged from 17th and 19th on the grid. That matters at a circuit with an 80 percent historical safety car rate, a softer tyre than last year, and weather that turns over twice in an afternoon.
The current form backs it up. Verstappen has won three of the last four races in 2026 at Sepang, Singapore and Mexico City, and he was third in the one he did not win. Red Bull are the quickest race-day car right now even when they are not the quickest on Saturday, and Interlagos is a race-day circuit. If you are hunting F1 DFS picks for the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, the value case is the same one: he is the likeliest winner from wherever he qualifies, which is not something you can say about anyone else in the field.
This is a prediction, not a promise. If qualifying is dry and Mercedes lock out the front row, the odds change in a hurry.
Who Else Could Win?
Kimi Antonelli. Nine wins, six poles and the title already in hand. He finished second here in 2025 and topped second practice. A driver with nothing to lose at a track he already goes well at is dangerous.
Lando Norris. The defending winner of this race, and he led first practice. McLaren have been off the leaders most of 2026, but Norris has found speed at Interlagos in each of the last three years.
George Russell. His maiden Formula 1 win came here in 2022 and he has finished in the top four in each of the last two visits. If Mercedes are chasing a constructors' clincher, he is the one who gets it done.
The Bottom Line
The title is gone, the circuit is short, the tyres are soft and the sky over Sao Paulo rarely stays the same for two hours. Nobody in this field turns that kind of afternoon into a win more often than Max Verstappen.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Sao Paulo Grand Prix 2026?
Our pick is Max Verstappen, who has three wins at Interlagos and has won three of the last four races of the 2026 season.
Is Max Verstappen good at Interlagos?
Yes. He has three wins here, a podium in five of his last six starts, and he won from 17th on the grid in 2024 and finished third from 19th in 2025.
What time does the Sao Paulo Grand Prix start?
Lights out is Sunday, November 8 at 12:00 PM ET, which is 2:00 PM local time in Sao Paulo. The race is 71 laps.
What channel is the Brazilian Grand Prix on in the US?
Apple TV. Formula 1 moved its United States broadcast rights to Apple TV for the 2026 season, so it is no longer on ESPN.
Has the 2026 F1 championship already been decided?
The drivers' title has. Kimi Antonelli clinched it at the Mexico City Grand Prix. The constructors' championship is still live, and Mercedes can seal it at Interlagos.
Race Day Gear
If you are pulling for the pick on Sunday, we have Formula 1 gear in stock and ready to ship:
- Red Bull Racing Max Verstappen RB16B 1:18 model car
- Red Bull Racing special edition bucket hat
- Mercedes AMG Petronas George Russell 1:2 scale helmet
- McLaren F1 New Era 9Fifty camo hat
- Scuderia Ferrari garage crew tee
More in the Formula 1 collection.
