Sao Paulo GP Pick 2026: Kimi Antonelli at Interlagos This Sunday
The Happy Hour Racing Formula 1 Track Preview. This is our Sao Paulo GP pick, built on the circuit, the numbers and Friday's lap times. Saturday's race preview handles the storylines. This one is the math.
The Short Version
Round 20 of 23 is the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, also known as the Brazilian GP, at Interlagos. It is 71 laps on Sunday, November 8, with lights out at 12:00 PM ET, streaming on Apple TV in the United States. Andrea Kimi Antonelli clinched the 2026 title last week in Mexico City and then went fastest in Friday's second practice. Mercedes can also wrap up the constructors' title if it outscores Ferrari by three points.
My Pick to Win
Andrea Kimi Antonelli - No. 12, Mercedes
Nine wins in 19 races, top of the timesheet in FP2, and second here last year. Qualifying has not happened yet, so this is a Friday night call.
The Track: Short, Hilly and Hard on Rear Tyres
The Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace is 4.309 km around, and 71 laps make 305.879 km. Everyone calls it Interlagos. It first hosted a Grand Prix in 1973 and sits nearly 800 metres above sea level, the second-highest circuit on the calendar. That thins the air, but far less than Mexico City did last week.
The lap is two long straights around a twisty middle section, with big elevation changes and an uphill run from Turn 12 to the line. Traction out of Turn 12 sets up the whole run to Turn 1, a classic passing spot. There were 96 overtakes here last year. The 2026 cars have two Straight Line Mode zones here, and energy use is not especially demanding by this year's standards.
The tyres are the real question. Pirelli brought C3, C4 and C5, its softest range and one step softer than 2025. Sections from Turns 3 to 5 and around Turns 8 and 9 were resurfaced this year, which may change grip and wear. Pre-race analysis expects two stops in the dry, with rear overheating as the main limit.
Then there is the chaos number. Formula 1 puts the Safety Car chance at 86 percent based on the last seven races here, and a Virtual Safety Car at 57 percent. The last Grand Prix at this track without a Safety Car was 2018. A pit stop costs 21.83 seconds, so a well-timed caution can swing the whole race.
Past Winners: The Front Row Usually Wins, Until It Does Not
Michael Schumacher holds the record with four wins at this circuit. Sebastian Vettel, Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen have three each. The more useful number is where the winner started. Seven of the last ten started first. Going back to 2010, 13 of 15 winners started first or second.
The two exceptions are the reason nobody relaxes here. Hamilton won from 10th in 2021 and Verstappen won from 17th in the rain in 2024. Both of those drives are now part of this week's math.
Friday's Numbers
Practice times are not race pace, and teams never show everything. But several drivers went to soft tyres around the halfway point of FP2, and that is where the fast laps came. Lando Norris topped FP1 with a 1:11.717, 0.082 seconds up on Antonelli. FP2 went like this:
| FP2 | Driver | Team | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 1:10.763 |
| 2 | Lando Norris | McLaren | +0.253 |
| 3 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | +0.259 |
| 4 | George Russell | Mercedes | +0.273 |
| 5 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +0.321 |
| 6 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | +0.450 |
| 7 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +0.720 |
The notable part is Russell. He was fourth, but he cannot start any higher than sixth. Mercedes fitted a fresh internal combustion engine and he takes a five-place grid penalty, his second engine penalty in four rounds. He told Formula 1, "Five places doesn't seem that bad." He has a point. Hamilton's 2021 win from 10th came with a five-place engine penalty of his own at this same track.
George Russell will take a five-place grid penalty at this weekend's Sao Paulo Grand Prix for use of a fresh Mercedes engine pic.twitter.com/bvrEiw1dka
- Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) November 6, 2026
My Sao Paulo GP Pick to Win: Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli has nine wins, 16 podiums and seven starts from the front of the grid in 19 races. Mercedes has won 12 of the 19 and leads Ferrari 630 points to 504. No one else on the grid can match that base of evidence.
The track numbers fit too. He has just one Grand Prix start here, but he started second and finished second last year behind Norris. Interlagos usually rewards the front of the grid, and he has been at or near the front all year. He and Norris were the only two drivers in the top two of either Friday session, and his FP2 margin over Norris was a quarter of a second.
Now the honest part. Verstappen has the better recent form. His last five finishes are 2, 1, 1, 3, 1, while Antonelli's are 5, 2, 3, 1, 3. So treat this as an informed prediction and not a guarantee. We are backing the fastest car on the best lap of Friday, with the title pressure gone. Rain could scramble all of it.
| Driver | Wins | Podiums | Last 5 finishes | 2025 here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonelli | 9 | 16 | 5, 2, 3, 1, 3 | 2nd |
| Verstappen | 3 | 11 | 2, 1, 1, 3, 1 | 3rd |
| Norris | 2 | 5 | DNF, 9, 4, 5, 5 | 1st |
| Russell | 3 | 8 | 1, 20, 9, 8, 6 | 4th |
2026 Grands Prix through Round 19. Source: jolpica/Ergast.
Who Else Could Win
Max Verstappen. He just won in Mexico City, his third win in four races, and he has won two of the last three here. Last year he went from the pit lane to the podium. If it rains, he moves way up this list.
Lando Norris. The defending winner took pole here in each of the last two years and topped FP1. He has not won since Zandvoort in August, but Friday says McLaren has real speed here.
George Russell. He won here in 2022 and has the same car as the pick. The penalty is the problem, not the speed.
The Weather Wild Card
Friday forecasts call for persistent rain on Saturday afternoon and the chance of a cool, wet race on Sunday. ESPN has light showers and 19 degrees C for race day. Rain would make the qualifying order and the tyre data above far less useful. Check back on Saturday's F1 race preview for the grid and the storylines. If you are going, our Interlagos fan guide covers what to bring.
The Bottom Line
The champion has nothing left to prove, and he set the fastest Friday lap at a track that usually rewards the front of the grid. The numbers say Antonelli. The sky over Interlagos gets a vote.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Sao Paulo Grand Prix 2026?
Our pick is Andrea Kimi Antonelli in the No. 12 Mercedes. He has nine wins in 19 races and went fastest in FP2 with a 1:10.763.
What time does the Sao Paulo Grand Prix start and what channel is it on?
Lights out is 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026, streaming on Apple TV in the United States. Qualifying is Saturday at 1:00 PM ET.
Why does George Russell have a grid penalty in Brazil?
Mercedes fitted a fresh internal combustion engine, which drops him five places from wherever he qualifies.
Can Mercedes clinch the constructors' title in Brazil?
Yes. Formula 1 says Mercedes needs to outscore Ferrari by three points on Sunday.
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