Grand Prix of Monterey Pick 2026: Alex Palou at Laguna Seca This Sunday
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing IndyCar Track Preview - the Friday post where we skip the noise and look at the numbers. Track facts, past winners, and one data-based pick to win.
The Short Version
The Mission Foods Grand Prix of Monterey closes the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season on Sunday, September 6 at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca. It is 95 laps and 212.61 miles around an 11-turn, 2.238-mile road course, and FOX coverage starts at 2:30 p.m. ET with the green flag just after 3. Alex Palou already has the title locked up, so the real fight is for second place, where Christian Lundgaard, Kyle Kirkwood and Pato O'Ward are covered by four points. If you want one reason to watch, that is it.
My Pick to Win
Alex Palou - No. 10, Chip Ganassi Racing
His average finish at Laguna Seca is 1.6 across five starts, the best mark any driver owns at any track on the 2026 schedule.
The Track: Why Laguna Seca Races the Way It Does
Laguna Seca is short, narrow and old-school. At 2.238 miles it is one of the shortest road courses IndyCar runs, and the lap only takes about 68 seconds. That matters more than it sounds. Short laps mean traffic arrives constantly, and a car that is half a second off is a lapped car in a hurry.
The signature corner is the Corkscrew, a left-right combination that drops about six stories in roughly 450 feet. Drivers cannot see the exit when they turn in. It is the most famous passing spot on the track and also the easiest place to throw a whole afternoon away.
Two rules shape strategy here. Push to pass gives every driver 150 seconds of extra power for the race, with a 15-second cap on any single press, so drivers have to spend it in useful chunks instead of holding the button. The hybrid system can be deployed as often as a driver wants, up to 350 kilojoules per lap, which puts a premium on how well a driver harvests energy in the braking zones. Firestone brings five sets of primary tires and five sets of alternates, and everyone has to run at least one set of each.
One number in there is worth staring at. The qualifying record belongs to Christian Lundgaard at 1:06.4610, or 121.226 mph, set back on September 9, 2023. Palou's pole last year was a 1:08.3413. The cars are heavier now with the hybrid unit on board, and the lap times show it.
Past Winners and What the List Tells You
IndyCar came back to Monterey in 2019 and has raced here six times since. Only three drivers have won: Colton Herta twice, Alex Palou three times, and Scott Dixon once. Herta is not in the 2026 field, which trims the list of proven Laguna Seca winners down to two names, and both of them drive for Chip Ganassi Racing.
Here is Palou's full record at this track. Note the 2022 line, where a six-place grid penalty for an unapproved engine change put him 11th on the grid and he won anyway by more than 30 seconds.
| Year | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 84 |
| 2024 | 1 | 1 | 48 |
| 2023 | 5 | 3 | 51 |
| 2022 | 11 | 1 | 67 |
| 2021 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
That is 250 laps led at one track, more than anyone else entered this weekend. Kyle Kirkwood is next among the current field with 24.
The Numbers Heading In
Palou clinched his fifth IndyCar title on August 30 at Milwaukee, his fourth in a row. He goes into the finale with six wins and eight poles in 2026. The one soft spot in his form: he has gone four straight races without a podium, his longest drought since 2024.
Behind him it is genuinely close. Christian Lundgaard sits second on 507 points, two clear of Kyle Kirkwood on 505, with Pato O'Ward on 503 after sweeping both Milwaukee races. David Malukas is 23 back of second on 484 and still hunting his first career win after six runner-up finishes. Scott Dixon runs his last race for Chip Ganassi Racing after 25 seasons, with a streak of 21 straight winning seasons on the line.
My Pick to Win: Alex Palou
The case is not complicated. Palou has won three of the last four races at Laguna Seca and the last two in a row, both from pole. His 1.6 average finish here is the best any driver in the series carries into any event on the calendar. He has led 250 laps at this track and has never finished worse than third.
The obvious counterargument is motivation, since the championship is already his. History says that does not slow him down. In 2025 he showed up at Monterey with the title effectively wrapped, put it on pole, and led 84 of 95 laps. The podium drought is real and worth noting, but a driver who owns a track this thoroughly is the wrong one to bet against. Call it an informed prediction, not a lock.
He loves Laguna Seca. Alex Palou takes a "Victory Lap" with @wbuxtonofficial.
— INDYCAR on FOX (@IndyCarOnFOX) July 28, 2025
Who Else Could Win?
Christian Lundgaard. He finished second here last year and he holds the Laguna Seca qualifying record. He also leaves Arrow McLaren after Sunday, which is the kind of exit that tends to produce a big drive.
Pato O'Ward. Three wins in 2026 and the hottest car in the paddock after sweeping Milwaukee. He started second and finished fourth here last year, so the speed is there even if the win is not yet.
Scott Dixon. The 2023 winner and the only driver besides Palou in this field who has won at Monterey. A farewell win for Ganassi would keep a 21-season streak alive.
The Bottom Line
The championship is settled, but Sunday is still worth your afternoon. Four points cover three drivers fighting for second, Dixon is saying goodbye to the team he has driven for since 2002, and the guy who owns this racetrack has no reason to lift. Laguna Seca picks 2026 mostly come down to one question, and the answer is the same as it has been for three of the last four years.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Grand Prix of Monterey 2026?
Alex Palou. He has won three of the last four IndyCar races at Laguna Seca and carries a 1.6 average finish there across five starts.
Is Alex Palou good at Laguna Seca?
Yes. In five starts he has three wins, a second and a third, with 250 laps led and no finish worse than third.
What time does the Grand Prix of Monterey start?
Coverage begins Sunday, September 6 at 2:30 p.m. ET, with the green flag scheduled just after 3 p.m. ET.
What channel is the Grand Prix of Monterey on?
FOX, with practice and qualifying on FS2 and radio coverage on the INDYCAR Radio Network and SiriusXM.
Who is fighting for second in the 2026 IndyCar standings?
Christian Lundgaard (507), Kyle Kirkwood (505) and Pato O'Ward (503) are separated by four points going into the finale.
Gear Up for the Finale
If you are watching the finale, here is what is in stock right now in our IndyCar collection:
- IndyCar In Motion Blue Tee
- IndyCar Checkered Flag Sublimated T-Shirt
- IndyCar Snake Pit Tee
- IndyCar Red Graphic Logo Tee
- Indy 500 Champions Tee
Nothing there hitting right? The newest arrivals get restocked every week.
