Grand Prix of Monterey Pick 2026: The Laguna Seca Numbers Say Christian Lundgaard
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Friday Track Preview - the data side of the weekend. We dig through the track stats, the history and the form book, then we make a pick. Saturday's preview handles the storylines.
The Short Version
The 2026 IndyCar season ends Sunday with the Mission Grand Prix of Monterey at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca, 95 laps around a 2.238-mile road course in the hills above Monterey, California. FOX coverage starts at 2:30 p.m. ET and the green flag is scheduled for about 3:05 p.m. ET. Alex Palou already wrapped up the title at Milwaukee, so the championship is settled. What is not settled is second place, where four points cover three drivers. Our Grand Prix of Monterey pick is Christian Lundgaard, and the numbers below are why.
Laguna Seca by the Numbers
Laguna Seca is short, narrow and hilly. It opened in 1957 and it is one of the few tracks left where the corner names matter more than the corner numbers. The Corkscrew, Turns 8 and 8A, drops 59 feet in a couple of car lengths on a blind crest, and the lap climbs and falls through 180 feet of elevation from top to bottom.
Two lap records tell you who has been quick here recently. Palou owns the IndyCar race lap record at 1:08.4168, set during the 2023 event. The outright qualifying lap record belongs to Christian Lundgaard, a 1:06.4610 he ran on September 9, 2023. Hold onto that second one.
What the Last Four Races Here Actually Show
IndyCar came back to Laguna Seca in 2019 after a 15-year gap, and the winners since have been a short list. Colton Herta won in 2019 and again in 2021. Palou won in 2022. Scott Dixon won in 2023. Palou won again in 2024 and 2025.
Now look at where those winners started. In 2022 Palou won from 11th on the grid after a six-place engine penalty. In 2023 Dixon won from 11th after the exact same kind of penalty. Then in 2024 and 2025 Palou converted pole into the win both times. So in the last four runnings, two winners came from the third row or worse and two came from the front row. Track position helps at Laguna Seca, but it is not the whole story the way it is on a street course.
Last year Palou was untouchable. He took pole, led 84 of the 95 laps and beat Lundgaard by 3.7965 seconds, with Herta third, Pato O'Ward fourth and Dixon fifth.
ALEX PALOU WINS AT LAGUNA SECA! pic.twitter.com/9a5vSTnAqO
— INDYCAR on FOX (@IndyCarOnFOX) July 27, 2025
One name on that winners list is missing this weekend. Herta, the only two-time Laguna Seca winner in the modern IndyCar era, left the series for a Formula 2 seat and a Cadillac Formula 1 test role for 2026. Whatever laps he would have taken out of this race are up for grabs.
The Title Is Done. Second Place Is a Four-Point Fight.
Palou clinched his fourth straight championship and his fifth in six years at Milwaukee on August 30, with one race still to run. He goes to Laguna Seca on 607 points with six wins and eight poles, and a 100-point cushion on the field.
Álex Palou se corona por quinta vez campeón de la IndyCar, con cuatro títulos de forma consecutiva https://t.co/vFBHgxsrMf
— EL MUNDO (@elmundoes) August 31, 2026
Everything else is live. Lundgaard sits second on 507. Kyle Kirkwood is third on 505. O'Ward is fourth on 503 after sweeping both Milwaukee races. David Malukas is fifth on 484 and needs help, but he is not mathematically done.
Our Grand Prix of Monterey Pick: Christian Lundgaard
Start with the obvious counter-argument. Palou is the safest pick on the board. He has won three of the last four races at this track, he has the most poles in the series this year and he is the defending winner of this race. If you want the highest-probability answer, it is the No. 10 Honda.
Here is why we are going the other way. First, form. Palou has gone four straight races without a podium, his longest dry spell since 2024, and he arrives with the trophy already in the cabinet. Second, surface. Lundgaard's two wins in 2026 both came on road courses, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis road course in May and Road America in June. Kirkwood's two wins both came on street circuits, and Josef Newgarden's two both came on ovals. Laguna Seca is a road course, and only one man in the fight for second has proven he can win on this kind of track this season.
Third, this specific place. Lundgaard holds the outright qualifying lap record here and he finished second in this race last year, the closest car to Palou all afternoon. Fourth, motivation. Arrow McLaren is not bringing him back for 2027, so this is his last drive for the team and his last chance to finish the year as its top car and as the series runner-up.
Palou will be there. So will O'Ward, who just swept a doubleheader. But the road-course data, the lap record and the stakes all point the same direction, and history says you do not have to start on pole to win at Laguna Seca.
The Bottom Line
The championship was decided a week ago. The finale is a 95-lap fight over four points, on a 2.238-mile road course where two of the last four winners started 11th. Take Christian Lundgaard, and check the 2026 IndyCar schedule and standings page Sunday night to see how it shook out. Heading to Monterey in person? Read our Laguna Seca fan guide first.
Shop the Story
Finale weekend gear, all in stock right now at Happy Hour Racing:
- IndyCar Checkered Flag Sublimated T-Shirt - the loudest shirt we sell, and the right one for a season finale.
- Checkered Flag Sports "Back Home Again" 500 Race Tee - the Indy classic, still our best-stocked IndyCar tee.
- 109th Indianapolis 500 Red Graphic Logo Tee - simple front graphic, easy everyday wear.
- Indianapolis 500 Snake Pit Tee - for the fans who treat race day like a festival.
- Colton Herta No. 26 Gainbridge 1:18 Diecast - the two-time Laguna Seca winner who is not on this year's grid. Only a couple left.
Want more IndyCar every week? Browse the full IndyCar collection or see everything new in the store.
