Talladega This Sunday: Five Points Between Larson and Bell, and the Scariest Track Left on the Schedule
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Race Preview. Friday's post covered the data and the pick. This one is about the story: who has something to prove at Talladega, who is sweating, and what to actually watch for when the green flag drops.
The Short Version
The YellaWood 500 runs Sunday, October 25 at 2 p.m. ET on NBC. It is 188 laps around the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway, race 34 of 36, and the eighth of the ten Chase races. Here is the one reason to tune in: Kyle Larson leads Christopher Bell by five points, the top seven drivers are separated by 56, and they are all about to run the one track on the schedule where a driver can lose a championship through no fault of his own.
The Big Storylines Heading In
Larson's cushion is almost gone. Three weeks ago at Charlotte he had a 40-point lead and looked like he was going to cruise to the trophy. Then Phoenix happened. A flat right-front tire put him in the wall, he finished 34th, and he scored no stage points. The lead that was 40 is now five. Larson still leads, but nobody is calling this his title any more.
Bell is right there and he has never won here. Christopher Bell sits second, five points back, and he made up all of that ground without needing a win. Talladega is the hole in his record: 13 career starts, no victory. He led 31 laps in the spring race here and still came home 17th, which is the most Talladega thing that can happen to a driver. He did finish eighth in this race a year ago.
You thought this championship was over? Think again. With only three races to go, it's anyone's crown.
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 22, 2026
Briscoe is the defending winner and he is on the pole. Chase Briscoe won this race last October with a last-lap pass, with a push from Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Ty Gibbs, taking the lead off Bubba Wallace in the final corner. On Saturday he went out and won the pole at 186.065 mph, a lap of 51.466 seconds. It is his first pole of 2026 and the tenth of his career. "Going into this season, if you would have told me it would've taken until race 33 to get a pole, I probably wouldn't have believed you," Briscoe said. He is third in points, 24 back, and he has already won two Chase races at Las Vegas and Charlotte.
Looking to reel in his third win of The Chase, @chasebriscoe starts P1 at @TALLADEGA. SUN | 2 p.m. ET | NBC
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 24, 2026
There is no safety net left. The 2026 Chase is decided on points, not elimination rounds, so a win does not buy anybody out of trouble. Get collected in a wreck you did not cause and those points are gone for good. Only two races follow this one, Martinsville on November 1 and Homestead-Miami on November 8. That is not much room to make anything back.
Bubba Wallace has the most talked-about car in the garage. His No. 23 23XI Toyota carries Kroger Health and Novavax branding this weekend. The scheme showed up online Wednesday and the reaction was loud in both directions. Set the sponsor argument aside and remember the racing part: Talladega is where Wallace got his first Cup win, in October 2021, becoming the first Black driver to win at NASCAR's top level since Wendell Scott in 1963.
Drivers To Watch, And Why
Carson Hocevar. He won here in April for his first career Cup victory, beating Chris Buescher by 0.114 seconds on the last lap in the No. 77 Spire Chevrolet, then took his victory lap sitting on the window ledge. He is 158 points out of the lead so the title is not realistically his, which is exactly what makes him dangerous. He has three straight top-10s at Talladega and a 13.2 average finish in six starts here. He has nothing to protect.
Joey Logano. Three career wins at Talladega and no top-10 finish in his last nine starts here. That is a strange record for a driver this good on superspeedways. He is sixth, 44 back, and he needs one of those old Talladega afternoons.
Denny Hamlin. Still the best driver never to win a Cup title, and the clock on that is down to three races. He is fourth, 31 back. The problem is that he has not finished in the top 10 in his last seven superspeedway starts, and this is the worst possible week for that to keep going.
Connor Zilisch. The only full-time Cup rookie this year qualified third in the Trackhouse No. 88, with teammate Shane Van Gisbergen fourth. A rookie starting near the front at Talladega has either the best seat in the house or the worst, depending on what happens behind him.
What To Watch For On Sunday
The weather is not going to save anybody. Sunday looks mostly sunny with a high near 74 and winds of 5 to 10 mph, with about a 5 percent chance of rain and roughly 73 degrees at the green flag. No rain delay, no shortened race, no weather excuse. Whatever happens out there is going to be driver-made.
Watch where the title guys ride. At Talladega the safest place is the front and the second safest is the very back. The worst place is the middle of the pack. Every contender has to decide whether to run up front and risk being in the middle of the Big One, or hang back and risk being a lap behind the fight for the win. Larson has a 22 percent top-10 rate here and three recent finishes of 16th, 40th and 31st, so watch whether he races it or survives it.
Watch the stage ends. Stage points are the quiet currency in a points-only Chase. With five points separating first from second, a single stage finish can flip the standings before the race is even over. Expect contenders to push harder for stage points than the risk would normally be worth.
Watch the last 15 laps. That is when the drafting partners stop being partners. Briscoe won here last year on the final corner. Hocevar won the spring race on the last lap. Talladega almost never settles anything early.
The Fan Debate
Here is the argument that will not die: should Talladega be this late in the championship? One side says a crash lottery with three races to go is not how you decide a champion, and that a driver who led the standings all year can get wiped out by somebody else's mistake. The other side says that is the whole point, that superspeedway racing has always been part of the sport, and that a real champion has to handle every kind of track including this one.
Both sides have a case, and the format makes it sharper this year. Without elimination rounds, a bad day here is just points gone, with no win-and-you're-in escape hatch. Pick a side in the comments. This one splits a room.
The Bottom Line
Five points, seven drivers inside 56, and 188 laps at the one place where none of that is in anybody's control. Talladega does not care who leads the standings. Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, somebody's season gets made and somebody's gets ended, and it probably happens in the last ten laps.
Gear for the drivers in Sunday's story, all in stock right now:
- Chase Briscoe #19 2025 Talladega Winner T-Shirt - the shirt from the last-lap pass he is defending Sunday
- Carson Hocevar #77 Car T-Shirt - he won here in April for his first Cup trophy
- Kyle Larson #5 Throwback Snapback Hat - the points leader, for now
- Christopher Bell #20 Bristol Night Winner T-Shirt - five points back and climbing
- Tyler Reddick #8 Trucker Hat - he won Phoenix last week and he is our Friday pick to win Sunday
Not seeing your driver? The newest gear in the store is here, and the win-shirt fan club sends you the shirt when your driver wins.
