NASCAR Returns to Chicagoland This Sunday: Your Data Preview for the eero 400
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Track Preview - the data, stats, and pick breakdown for this Sunday's Cup Series race. Want the storylines and what-to-watch angle too? That post runs Saturday.
The Short Version
The NASCAR Cup Series races the eero 400 at Chicagoland Speedway this Sunday, July 5, with green flag at 6:00 PM ET on TNT. It's 267 laps around the 1.5-mile Joliet oval, and it's the track's first Cup race since 2019. That seven-year gap means nobody in the current garage has raced a Next Gen car here, which makes this one of the harder races on the schedule to predict from film study. Below is what the numbers say, who has won here before, and who the data points to on Sunday.
The Track: What Makes Chicagoland Race This Way
Chicagoland Speedway is a 1.520-mile tri-oval, built to the same rough template as Kansas and Las Vegas but with sharper 18-degree banking in the turns (Kansas runs 15). The frontstretch carries 11 degrees of banking and the backstretch is a continuous sweeping curve at 5 degrees instead of a straight line, which is unusual for a track this size. That layout lets drivers run more than one groove as the track ages during a run.
For 2026, Chicagoland runs the 670-horsepower intermediate aero package, the same setup used at Kansas, Las Vegas, Texas, Charlotte, and Michigan. That's notably not the lower-grip 750-horsepower short-track package NASCAR rolled out at tracks 1.5 miles and under this year. Goodyear ran a two-day tire test here in April with Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and Denny Hamlin, representing all three manufacturers, and settled on a proven intermediate tire setup rather than anything new. All three drivers came away saying the Next Gen car is noticeably faster around Chicagoland than the old car they remembered from 2019.
The race breaks into three stages: Stage 1 ends at lap 80, Stage 2 at lap 165, and the final stage runs the remaining 102 laps to the checkered flag. The qualifying record here still belongs to Joey Logano, who ran 189.414 mph back in 2013. Whether that record survives Sunday with a faster car and a fresh track surface is one of the real questions of the weekend.
Past Winners and the Track's History
Chicagoland hosted a Cup race every year from 2001 through 2019. Kevin Harvick won the inaugural race in 2001 as a rookie, then won it again in 2002. Tony Stewart owns the track record with three wins, in 2004, 2007, and 2011, the last one coming on fuel mileage after rain pushed the race to a Monday finish. The most recent winner, Alex Bowman in 2019, broke through for his first career Cup win there after a lightning delay held up a late restart.
Martin Truex Jr. is the only driver to win here back-to-back in the 2016-2017 window, and Brad Keselowski also won twice, in 2012 and 2014. Denny Hamlin's lone Chicagoland win came in 2015, his 26th career Cup victory. Every one of those wins came in the old Gen 6 car, so none of it translates directly to Sunday, but it does tell you which drivers and teams have historically figured out this shape of track fastest.
Current Form Heading Into Chicagoland
The points race has flipped in the last month. Tyler Reddick led every week of the season through May behind a record-setting three-race win streak and five total wins, but a power steering failure at Sonoma dropped him to a last-place finish. Denny Hamlin, who has won three of the last five races, took advantage and now leads the standings by a single point heading into Chicagoland. Shane van Gisbergen won at Sonoma and climbed to 14th in points, and Kyle Larson has reeled off four straight top-5 finishes without a win yet this season.
Sportsbooks have Hamlin as the favorite for Sunday at plus-380, with Reddick next at plus-430, Larson at plus-600, Christopher Bell at plus-900, and Chase Elliott at plus-1000.
My Pick to Win
Denny Hamlin is the pick. He already has a Chicagoland win on his resume from 2015, he was one of three drivers NASCAR picked to run the April tire test here, and he is red hot right now with three wins in his last five starts and the points lead to show for it. Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing have historically been strong on this style of intermediate tri-oval, and Hamlin's recent form is the best in the field.
If you want a sleeper, take Kyle Larson. He is still chasing his first win of the season, but he has four consecutive top-5 finishes, he tested at Chicagoland in April and liked what he felt, and Hendrick Motorsports cars have a strong long history at 1.5-mile tracks. A driver this consistent is going to break through somewhere, and a track nobody has raced at in seven years is exactly the kind of equalizer that could do it.
The Bottom Line
Nobody in this field has raced a Next Gen car at Chicagoland, the track record is seven years old, and the last time we saw this place it produced a breakthrough first-time winner. That's a real shot at fireworks on Sunday. Set a reminder, because the eero 400 has the ingredients for one of the more unpredictable races of the summer.
Riding with the points leader this weekend, or betting on Larson to finally break through? We've got you covered either way:
- Denny Hamlin #11 win t-shirt - our pick to win Sunday
- Kyle Larson #5 throwback snapback - our sleeper pick
- Shane van Gisbergen #88 win t-shirt - fresh off the Sonoma win
- Kyle Busch #8 hoodie - the last driver to win at Chicagoland before the hiatus
- Chase Elliott #9 win t-shirt - in the field Sunday and always a fan favorite
Browse the full latest gear collection before the green flag drops. New track previews run every Friday.
