Brickyard 400 Pick 2026: Kyle Larson at Indianapolis This Sunday
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Track Preview - the Friday data drop where we break down the numbers, the records, and the pick before Sunday's Cup race. Facts first, then a call.
The Short Version
The Brickyard 400 presented by PPG runs this Sunday, July 26, at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Green flag is 2:00 PM ET on TNT. It is 160 laps, 400 miles, around a flat 2.5-mile oval that races nothing like a normal track. This is a crown jewel, and it is also the finale of the 2026 In-Season Challenge. If you want Brickyard 400 predictions and the numbers behind them, this is your stop.
My Pick to Win
Kyle Larson - No. 5, Hendrick Motorsports
He finished first and second in the last two Brickyard 400s on this oval, and Hendrick owns more Indy wins than any team.
The Track and Why It Races the Way It Does
Indianapolis is not a normal Cup oval. It is a 2.5-mile rectangle with four separate flat corners banked just 9 degrees, joined by long straightaways. Flat corners mean the cars do not get help from banking, so grip runs out fast and drivers have to lift and roll the center of the corner. The layout also makes passing hard. Clean air matters a lot here, so track position and pit strategy carry real weight.
The 2026 rules do not change that math. The 750-horsepower short-track package only applies to tracks 1.5 miles and shorter. Indy is 2.5 miles, so it keeps the 670-horsepower intermediate package with the taller spoiler. Expect a fuel-mileage and tire-management race where staying on the lead lap and timing the last stop can matter more than raw speed.
Past Winners and a Little History
The oval version of this race carries a lot of weight. Bubba Wallace won last year in 2025 for his first crown jewel, holding off Kyle Larson on low fuel. Larson won the year before in 2024. The three years before that, from 2021 through 2023, the Cup Series ran the Indianapolis road course instead of the oval, so the recent oval winners jump from 2020 back to 2024.
Jeff Gordon owns the most Brickyard wins with five. Kyle Busch is the last driver to win it in back-to-back years, taking 2015 and 2016. As a team, Hendrick Motorsports leads everyone with 11 Brickyard wins, plus the most top fives, top tens, and laps led at the track. That history is a big reason Larson keeps showing up near the front here.
Here is Kyle Larson's own recent record on the Indy oval. It shows why he is the Indianapolis NASCAR favorite this weekend, and it is the kind of table DFS and pick players want before they lock a lineup.
| Year | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13 | 2 | 19 |
| 2024 | 5 | 1 | 41 |
| 2019 | 19 | 33 | 0 |
| 2018 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
Source: race results via nascar.com and Wikipedia race reports. The 2021 through 2023 seasons ran on the road course and are not listed.
Drivers to Watch This Year
The current form points to a wide-open front. Denny Hamlin leads the standings with four wins. Tyler Reddick has a series-best five wins in 2026 and was on the pole here in 2024. Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, and Joey Logano have all reached victory lane over the last month. And in practice at Indy this week, Christopher Bell was fastest of everyone at 183.512 mph, so he clearly has speed on this layout.
Because Indy rewards clean air and long green-flag runs, watch qualifying closely on Saturday. A front-row start is worth more here than at most tracks, and the driver who controls the top lane late usually controls the race. For NASCAR picks at Indianapolis, start position and long-run speed are the two numbers that matter most.
My Pick to Win
The pick is Kyle Larson, No. 5. The track-specific record is the strongest argument. He won in 2024 leading a race-high 41 laps and came back to finish second in 2025 after leading 19 more. His 2026 season on intermediate-style tracks is uneven on average, dragged down by a few DNFs, but the median tells the real story with a P7 middle finish and a best of P2. Pair that with Hendrick's Indy history and Larson is the clearest data-based call for who wins the Brickyard 400 2026. This is an informed prediction, not a lock, and the Kyle Larson odds at Indianapolis 2026 will be short for a reason.
Who Else Could Win
Other drivers to watch: Christopher Bell is my sleeper after topping practice, and Joe Gibbs Racing runs well on flat tracks. Tyler Reddick has the most wins in the series this year and already has an Indy pole to his name. Bubba Wallace is the defending winner and proved last year he can manage fuel and hold off Larson when it counts.
The Bottom Line
Indianapolis is a track-position, tire-and-fuel puzzle, and the drivers who solve it are usually the ones who have solved it before. That is why the smart Brickyard 400 picks for 2026 start with Kyle Larson. Get comfortable early Sunday, because the last 30 laps of this one are going to be worth the wait.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Brickyard 400 2026?
Kyle Larson is our pick and the favorite, based on his win in 2024, his runner-up finish in 2025, and Hendrick Motorsports' strong Indianapolis history.
Is Kyle Larson good at Indianapolis?
Yes. He finished first and second in the last two Brickyard 400s on the oval and led laps in both, so he is one of the best current drivers at the track.
What time does the Brickyard 400 start?
The green flag is set for 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, July 26, 2026, at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
What channel is the Brickyard 400 on?
The race airs on TNT.
Riding with Larson on Sunday? Gear up before the green flag. A few picks in stock now:
- Jeff Gordon and Kyle Larson 30th Anniversary Brickyard Winners shirt - built for this race.
- Kyle Larson No. 5 signature hang tag keychain
- Christopher Bell No. 20 win shirt - for my sleeper pick.
- Tyler Reddick No. 8 trucker hat
- Denny Hamlin No. 11 schedule shirt
Want the whole lineup? Browse every driver in the Happy Hour Racing collections. New track previews drop every Friday.
