Bass Pro Shops Night Race Pick 2026: Why Kyle Larson Is the Play at Bristol
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Track Preview - where we dig through the numbers on the track, the past winners, and the form book, then commit to a pick. No hedging.
The Short Version
The Cup Series rolls into Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday, September 19 for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, 500 laps around a 0.533-mile concrete bullring, green flag at 7:30 PM ET on USA. It is race 29 of 36 and the third of the ten races that decide the 2026 championship, and the points at the top are close enough that one bad night at the toughest track on the schedule could swing the whole thing. Bristol also races differently this year, because it is the first fall night race run with the 750-horsepower short-track package. Our pick is Kyle Larson, and the numbers below are why.
My Pick to Win
Kyle Larson - No. 5, Hendrick Motorsports
He has led 1,156 laps in his last four Bristol starts and just won at Gateway to climb within nine points of the championship lead.
The Track: Why Bristol Races the Way It Does
Bristol is a half-mile oval with banking that runs from 24 to 28 degrees in the corners. For comparison, a highway on-ramp is banked a couple of degrees. Bristol's corners are steep enough that walking up them is genuinely hard. That banking lets cars carry enormous speed for such a short lap, which is why the field completes a circuit in roughly 15 seconds and why traffic arrives constantly.
The surface is concrete rather than asphalt, and concrete is unforgiving. It does not lay down rubber the way asphalt does, so grip comes and goes as the night cools and the groove moves around. The straights carry progressive banking from 4 to 8 degrees, so a driver can work the bottom or lean on the outside wall, and the fast line genuinely changes over a long run.
The 2026 wrinkle matters. Bristol moved to the 750-horsepower short-track package this season, meaning more power and less downforce than the kit used here in recent years. More shove and less grip is a recipe for tire spin off the corner and cars that slide. The April race bore that out: the race ran 505 laps instead of the scheduled 500 after going to overtime, with nine caution periods for 73 laps and 16 lead changes among seven different drivers.
Past Winners and the History That Still Matters
Bristol has run this race under the lights since 1978, when the track moved it out of the August heat. Darrell Waltrip won 12 Cup races here, still the most by anyone, and seven came in the night race. Lately the trophy has moved around: Christopher Bell took it last September, Kyle Larson won in 2024 and 2021, Denny Hamlin in 2023 and 2019, and Chris Buescher's 2022 win ended a drought of more than six years.
Here is the record that drives the pick. These are Kyle Larson's last five Cup starts at Bristol:
| Race | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | 3 | 3 | 283 |
| September 2025 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| April 2025 | 3 | 1 | 411 |
| September 2024 | 2 | 1 | 462 |
| March 2024 | 10 | 5 | 19 |
Four of those five were finishes of fifth or better, and the one blemish, a 32nd last September, came after contact rather than a lack of speed. Anyone searching Bristol NASCAR favorites or Kyle Larson odds at Bristol in 2026 is looking at that column on the right. Nobody has controlled this racetrack like he has.
Where the Championship Stands
The 2026 Chase is a straight points race: sixteen drivers, ten events, no eliminations and no resets, 55 points for a win, and the most points after Homestead takes the title. That format puts a premium on nights like this one, because Bristol can hand out a 30th-place finish for something that is nobody's fault.
Denny Hamlin leads with 2,168 points. Larson is second on 2,159 after winning at Gateway, nine back. Christopher Bell is third on 2,150, then Ryan Blaney on 2,135 and Tyler Reddick on 2,126. Eight drivers sit within 60 points of the lead with eight races left, close enough that a Bristol wreck is a real problem for any of them.
My Pick to Win: Kyle Larson
The case is simple. Larson has led 1,156 laps in his last four Bristol starts, including 283 of 505 in April on this exact 750-horsepower package, and he has won two of the last five night races here. His short-track average finish this season reads 11.5, but that number is dragged down by a 33rd at Iowa and a 15th at North Wilkesboro; his median short-track result is eighth and his single best short-track run of 2026 was a third right here in April. Add the form: he won at Gateway and ran fifth at Darlington while leading 99 laps, so the speed that vanished in midsummer is clearly back.
One honest caveat: Bristol hands out bad luck for free, and Larson's own 32nd here last September is the proof. This is a prediction built on speed and history, not a guarantee, and anyone building NASCAR DFS picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race should weigh that laps-led ceiling against the risk.
Who Else Could Win?
Christopher Bell is the defending winner of this race and sits third in points, 18 behind Hamlin, after taking the Southern 500 earlier this month. Ty Gibbs won the Food City 500 here in April and led a race-high 201 laps in last year's night race, so he has led more Bristol laps recently than almost anyone outside the pick. Denny Hamlin has won this race twice since 2019 and arrives as the points leader, which is usually a decent sign the car is fast everywhere.
The Bottom Line
Bristol is 500 laps of running out of room, and this year the cars have more power and less grip to do it with. If you want one number to carry into Saturday night, make it 1,156 - the laps Kyle Larson has led here in his last four visits. Cars that lead Bristol tend to keep leading Bristol.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race 2026?
Our pick is Kyle Larson, who has won two of the last five Bristol night races and led 283 laps in the spring race here in April.
Is Kyle Larson good at Bristol Motor Speedway?
He is the best active driver here by a wide margin, with finishes of third, first, first and fifth in four of his last five starts and more than 1,100 laps led in that span.
What time does the Bass Pro Shops Night Race start?
Green flag is 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 19, 2026, and the race is scheduled for 500 laps and 266.5 miles.
What channel is the Bass Pro Shops Night Race on?
USA Network carries the race.
Who won the Bristol night race last year?
Christopher Bell won the 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Pulling for somebody Saturday night? Wear it. Here is the gear we would grab for this one:
- Kyle Larson No. 5 2024 Bristol Night Race winner tee - the last time our pick took this trophy.
- Christopher Bell No. 20 2025 Bristol Night Race winner tee - for the defending champ of this race.
- Denny Hamlin 2024 Bristol win tee - the points leader, and a two-time night race winner.
- Ty Gibbs No. 54 2026 winner tee - he won here in April and led the most laps last September.
- Kyle Larson HendrickCars snapback - for the outdoor watch party.
Want the whole shelf? Browse our newest arrivals, or let us send you a shirt every time your driver wins with the win shirt fan club. New track previews drop every Friday.
