Hollywood Casino 400 Pick 2026: Why Kyle Larson Is the Play at Kansas
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Track Preview - the Friday post where we dig into the numbers behind Sunday's race and make a call on who wins.
The Short Version
The Cup Series runs the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway on Sunday, September 27, with green flag at 3:00 PM ET on USA. It is 267 laps and 400.5 miles around a 1.5-mile tri-oval with three usable lanes, and it is the fourth of the 10 Chase races. Kyle Larson comes in leading the standings by a single point over Denny Hamlin, at the one track where he has led more laps than anybody in history.
My Pick to Win
Kyle Larson - No. 5, Hendrick Motorsports
He has three Cup wins at Kansas, led 78 laps here in April, and has finished first or second in two of his last three starts.
The Track: Why Kansas Races the Way It Does
Kansas opened in 2001 as a flat, one-groove copy of every other mile-and-a-half. Then it got repaved and reconfigured in 2012, and the fix was variable banking: 17 degrees at the bottom of the corner rising to 20 degrees at the top. That sounds small. It changed everything. A car on the bottom and a car on the top can both be fast, so drivers actually have somewhere to go, and the track widened out into three real lanes.
The other thing to know about Sunday is what is under the hood. NASCAR raised Cup horsepower from 670 to 750 for 2026, but only at road courses and ovals shorter than 1.5 miles. Kansas sits right on the line and did not make the list, so the cars keep the 670-horsepower intermediate package and the taller spoiler that goes with it. That means high corner speeds, a car that leans hard on aerodynamic grip, and long green-flag runs where tire wear decides who is still there at the end.
Stages break at lap 80 and lap 165, leaving a 102-lap run to the finish. Fuel mileage matters in that last stage, and so does track position. The qualifying record still belongs to Kyle Larson at 187.130 mph, set back in May 2015.
Past Winners and the History Worth Knowing
This race has been handed around. Eight runnings, six different winners. Chase Elliott is the defending champion of it after passing Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace in the final corner last September, winning by 0.069 seconds. Joey Logano owns the record with three Hollywood Casino 400 wins.
Kansas also owns the closest finish in Cup Series history. In May 2024, Larson beat Chris Buescher here by 0.001 seconds. The last two Cup races at this track have both run past the scheduled distance, so do not turn it off at lap 267.
Here is the table the people searching Hollywood Casino 400 picks 2026 actually want, which is what Larson has done at this specific track lately.
| Year | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (spring) | 4 | 2 | 78 |
| 2025 (fall) | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 2025 (spring) | 1 | 1 | 221 |
| 2024 (fall) | 11 | 26 | 0 |
| 2024 (spring) | 4 | 1 | 64 |
Start, finish and laps led from NASCAR lap-time data. Two wins and 364 laps led in five starts.
Drivers to Watch and Where the Season Stands
This is race 30 of the season and Chase race four of 10, and the top of the board is jammed. Larson leads on 2,206 points. Hamlin is one point back. Joey Logano is 16 behind after winning at Bristol, and Christopher Bell is 17 behind. Four drivers separated by 17 points going into a track where everybody can run.
Welcome to Kansas, the Heartland has missed you.
— Kansas Speedway (@kansasspeedway) September 25, 2026
Tyler Reddick has been the most productive driver of 2026 in raw wins with five, and one of them came at Kansas in April. Denny Hamlin has four wins and 952 laps led, and he has been the fastest car in this building twice in a row without winning either one. If you are looking at Kansas Speedway NASCAR favorites, those are the two names underneath Larson.
My Pick to Win
Kyle Larson. The report card above is honest about the risk. His average finish on intermediates this year is 17.3, which is not a number you brag about. But that average is dragged down by three finishes of 32nd or worse at Texas, Chicagoland and Indianapolis. His median intermediate finish is 7th, and his best one is the 2nd he took right here in April.
The Kansas record is the real argument. Three Cup wins, more laps led than any driver in the history of the track, and 78 laps led in the spring race. Add the form he is carrying: a win at Gateway on September 13, a runner-up at Bristol, and five top-six finishes in his last six starts. He is the points leader for a reason. The one thing that beats him is the same thing that beat him at Indy and Texas, which is getting caught up in somebody else's mess. Treat this as an informed prediction, not a lock.
Who Else Could Win?
If you are hunting NASCAR DFS picks for the Hollywood Casino 400 or just want a second name, start here.
- Denny Hamlin. He led 130 laps in the spring race and finished 4th, then led 158 laps last September and lost it on the final lap. He has been fast enough to win this race twice already and has nothing to show for it.
- Tyler Reddick. He won here in April and he won this same fall race in 2023. Five wins on the year leads everybody.
- Chase Elliott. He is the defending Hollywood Casino 400 winner and he has won this race twice, in 2018 and 2025. Hendrick equipment works at Kansas.
The Bottom Line
Kansas gives you three lanes, long runs, and a finish that has gone past the scheduled distance two races running. The points leader is the guy who has led more laps here than anyone alive. If Larson is anywhere near the front with 20 to go on Sunday, this one is his to lose.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Hollywood Casino 400 2026?
Our pick is Kyle Larson. He has three Cup wins at Kansas, the most laps led in track history, and he arrives leading the standings after finishing first and second in his last two full races.
Is Kyle Larson good at Kansas Speedway?
He is the best active driver here. Larson has won three times at Kansas, has 14 top-10 finishes in 23 starts, and has led more laps at the track than any driver ever.
What time does the Hollywood Casino 400 start?
Green flag is 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27, 2026, at Kansas Speedway. The race is 267 laps and 400.5 miles.
What channel is the Hollywood Casino 400 on?
USA Network. Radio coverage is on MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio channel 90.
Who won the Hollywood Casino 400 last year?
Chase Elliott won the 2025 race, passing Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace in the final corner to win by 0.069 seconds.
Riding with somebody on Sunday? Here is the gear that actually fits this race.
- Kyle Larson 2025 Kansas Speedway winner T-shirt - the one from the 221-lap day
- Kyle Larson 2024 Kansas Speedway winner T-shirt - the 0.001-second finish
- Ross Chastain 2024 Hollywood Casino 400 winner T-shirt
- Chase Elliott 2026 four-car paint scheme T-shirt
- Denny Hamlin 2026 61st Cup win T-shirt
Want everything in one place? Browse the driver collections. New track previews go up every Friday.
