Azerbaijan GP Pick 2026: George Russell on Baku Pole
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Formula 1 Track Preview, the weekly data, stats and pick column. This one is written after qualifying, because the Azerbaijan Grand Prix runs on Saturday.
The Short Version
Qualifying for the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix has already run, and it broke two records at once. George Russell put his Mercedes on pole with a 1:42.526, beating Charles Leclerc by 0.837 seconds. That is the largest pole margin in the ten years Formula 1 has raced at Baku. Twenty minutes earlier, championship leader Kimi Antonelli clipped the inside wall at Turn 1 in Q1, broke his front-left suspension, and will start 16th. The race goes green Saturday, September 26 at 7:00 AM ET. If you are searching for Azerbaijan Grand Prix picks 2026, the grid just made the job both easier and much harder.
My Pick to Win
George Russell - No. 63, Mercedes
Fastest car, record pole margin, and the only driver who normally beats him starts 16th.
The Numbers That Decide Saturday
Baku is 6.003 kilometers, 20 corners, and 51 laps for a race distance of 306.049 kilometers. The lap record is still Charles Leclerc's 1:43.009 from 2019, which has survived seven years and one complete rules revolution. Russell's pole lap this morning was 1:42.526, so the 2026 cars are quick here even without DRS.
Pirelli brought the C3, C4 and C5 compounds, one step harder than last year, and expects a one-stop. The asphalt is smooth and barely abrasive, so degradation should be low. A pit stop costs 19.27 seconds, which means nobody wants to stop twice unless a caution forces it. The safety car has appeared in 67 percent of the last six Baku Grands Prix, and the virtual safety car in 50 percent. Plan for one.
One more number worth holding onto: the run from the pole slot to Turn 1 is 111 meters, the shortest on the calendar. Nobody behind Russell has much time to do anything about him.
Nine Races, and the Pole Trap
Here is the argument against my own pick. Baku has hosted nine Grands Prix since 2016, and only three of them were won from pole. Leclerc took pole four years in a row from 2021 through 2024 and has never won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. His best result here is second. Daniel Ricciardo won from tenth on the grid in 2017, which is still the deepest climb to victory this circuit has produced.
But that pole trap was built by DRS. For nine years the move here was simple: take a tow down the 2.2-kilometer run to Turn 1, open the rear wing, and complete the pass before the braking zone. DRS does not exist in 2026. The overtaking aid is now a 350 kW battery override, and the driver in front can use active aero X-mode on the same straight whether or not anybody is chasing. The tow still works. The free pass does not. That is the biggest reason to treat the old pole numbers carefully this year.
Russell's own record here has been quietly climbing, which is what you want from a Baku F1 favorites list.
| Year | Start | Finish | Car |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5 | 2 | Mercedes |
| 2024 | 5 | 3 | Mercedes |
| 2023 | 11 | 8 | Mercedes |
| 2022 | 5 | 3 | Mercedes |
| 2021 | 15 | DNF | Williams |
The Antonelli Problem
Kimi Antonelli arrives with 292 points, eight wins and an 81-point lead over Russell with nine races left. He also arrives 16th on the grid after the shortest qualifying session of his season.
Rewind to Antonelli's moment at Turn 1 that ended his qualifying #F1 #AzerbaijanGP
— Formula 1 (@F1) September 25, 2026
Before you write him off, remember what happened at Monza three weeks ago. Antonelli started 19th and won the race. He has done this before, in this car, this season. A charge to the podium is realistic. A win from 16th on a one-stop would be extraordinary, and this driver has already been extraordinary once.
My Pick to Win
George Russell. Mercedes has won 10 of the 14 races this year and leads the constructors' standings 503 to Ferrari's 358, so the fastest car is not in question. Russell has taken five poles in 2026, and the four before this one produced two wins, a second place and one retirement. He has finished second, third, eighth and third in his four Baku starts for Mercedes, which says he is always there at the end of this race and has never had the car to close it out. Now he has the car, the best starting spot, and a teammate who cannot pressure him from 16th. Who wins Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2026 comes down to whether the pole trap survives the loss of DRS, and I do not think it does.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee. Baku has ended more strong Saturdays than any circuit on the calendar.
Who Else Could Win
Oscar Piastri (P3). He won this race in 2024 from second on the grid and qualified within 0.001 seconds of Leclerc today. McLaren has two wins this season and Piastri has the best Baku result of anyone starting in the top three.
Charles Leclerc (P2). Four Baku poles, zero Baku wins, and a front-row start on a circuit where Ferrari's straight-line trim usually works. If anybody has earned a result here, it is him.
Isack Hadjar (P4). The Red Bull rookie out-qualified Max Verstappen by four tenths at Red Bull's historically strongest circuit. Red Bull has five Baku wins and no wins at all in 2026, which is the kind of streak that ends somewhere like this.
The Bottom Line
Russell has the fastest car, the biggest pole margin Baku has ever seen, and a championship leader starting 16th. Everything says he should win. Baku has spent ten years saying "should" is not a word that means much here.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2026?
George Russell, who starts from pole in a Mercedes that has won 10 of the 14 races this season.
Is George Russell good at Baku?
He has never won there, but he has finished second, third, eighth and third in his four Azerbaijan Grands Prix for Mercedes.
Why does Kimi Antonelli start 16th?
He hit the inside wall at Turn 1 during Q1 and damaged his front-left suspension, which ended his qualifying session.
What time does the Azerbaijan Grand Prix start?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET, which is 3:00 PM local time in Baku. The race is 51 laps.
Why is the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on a Saturday?
The race was moved off Sunday to avoid clashing with Azerbaijan's national day of remembrance on September 27.
Gear Up for Baku
We do not have Mercedes gear on the shelf right now, so we are not going to pretend otherwise. What we do have is real McLaren kit for anyone backing Piastri or Norris, plus general Formula 1 pieces. Everything below is in stock as of this morning.
- McLaren F1 Lifestyle New Era 9Fifty Camo Baseball Hat
- McLaren Racing F1 New Era Shadow Beanie
- New Era Orange McLaren F1 Team Snowflake Cuffed Knit Hat
- Formula 1 Tech Limited Edition Belgian GP Hat, White
- PUMA Formula 1 Las Vegas Special Edition T-Shirt, Black
More of it lives in the Formula 1 collection. If you want the deeper circuit breakdown, we published a full Baku City Circuit profile last week.
