Ontario Honda Dealers Indy Pick 2026: Alex Palou at Markham
Part of the Happy Hour Racing IndyCar Track Preview series, where we dig into the numbers before the green flag drops.
The Short Version
The Ontario Honda Dealers Indy at Markham runs Sunday, August 16, 2026. FOX coverage starts at noon ET and the green flag waves around 12:22 PM ET for 90 laps on a brand new 2.19-mile street circuit nobody has raced on before. Alex Palou carries a 110-point lead into round 14 of 18, and he has won three of the four street races on this schedule. Every Ontario Honda Dealers Indy picks 2026 conversation starts and ends with whether anyone can beat him on pavement he has never seen either.
My Pick to Win
Alex Palou - No. 10, Chip Ganassi Racing
Three wins in four street races this season, six wins in 13 starts, and a brand new track where raw car speed matters more than track knowledge.
The Streets of Markham, by the numbers
This is the part that makes Sunday different from every other race in 2026. There is no lap record. There is no past winner. There is no old notebook to pull off the shelf. IndyCar ran 39 races in Ontario at Toronto's Exhibition Place from 1986 through 2025, and now the event starts a five-year run on a purpose-built temporary circuit in Markham Centre.
Tony Cotman drew the layout, the same designer behind the Nashville and Arlington street courses. It runs 12 turns over 2.19 miles between Kennedy Road, Enterprise Boulevard, the Unionville GO tracks, and Highway 407, past the York University Markham Campus and the Markham Pan Am Centre. The signature corner is the Turn 5 hairpin, a hard stop in the mold of Long Beach. Pit road is double-sided and split, the same setup Detroit uses, which means pit strategy gets complicated in a hurry when the field cycles through together.
Push-to-pass is set at 150 seconds total with a 15-second cap per activation, so drivers cannot dump it all in one stint. Firestone brings five sets of primary and five sets of alternate tires per car, and both compounds have to run at least two laps in the race. On a green circuit with no rubber down, that alternate tire decision is going to decide finishing positions.
Bob Pockrass walked the place Friday and confirmed the split pit road setup.
From track walk certainly appears can be done sometime late morning or afternoon. Obviously won't start with the 9am USF 2000 practice. INDYCAR practice scheduled for 3p ET. Pit road is a split pit road like Detroit.
- Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) August 14, 2026
Past winners of the Ontario race
Markham has no history, but the event does. The Ontario Honda Dealers Indy is IndyCar's second-longest running street race behind Long Beach, and the winners list is a who's who of the last decade.
Michael Andretti owns the all-time event record with seven wins across the CART and Champ Car eras. Scott Dixon leads the modern IndyCar era with four, and Chip Ganassi Racing has eight team wins, more than anyone. Pato O'Ward took the last one in Toronto in 2025 after starting 10th and leading 30 laps.
Here is the number that should interest anyone searching Alex Palou odds Markham 2026. He has four starts at this event and zero wins, and the shape of those runs says more than the finishing positions do.
| Year | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | 12 | 37 |
| 2024 | 18 | 4 | 0 |
| 2023 | 15 | 2 | 40 |
| 2022 | 22 | 6 | 28 |
Official results from the Ontario Honda Dealers Indy at Exhibition Place. The 2020 and 2021 races were cancelled.
My pick to win: Alex Palou
Palou sits on 510 points with six wins in 13 starts, and his lead over Kyle Kirkwood is 110 points with five races left. Three of his six wins came on street circuits: St. Petersburg, Long Beach, and Detroit. The one street race he did not win, Arlington, he finished second. That is a 3-for-4 record on temporary circuits in 2026, and Arlington was also a brand new track that nobody had lap data for.
That last point is the whole argument. When a circuit is new, the usual edge from years of setup notes disappears, and what is left is car speed, a driver who adapts fast, and a team that reads a green track well. Palou has led 170 of the last 480 laps and has four straight top-5 finishes. For anyone weighing NASCAR-style IndyCar DFS picks for Markham, he is the expensive play that keeps paying. This is a prediction, not a promise, but the data points one direction.
Who else could win?
Kyle Kirkwood. Five of his six career IndyCar wins have come on temporary street circuits, and he has finished in the top four at every street race in 2026. He also ran Palou down and passed him at Arlington, which is exactly the scenario Markham sets up.
Pato O'Ward. He won this event in Toronto last year and has finished top-five in all four street races this season, one fourth and three fifths. He also broke through for his first 2026 win at Mid-Ohio in July.
Christian Lundgaard. Two wins already this year at the Indianapolis road course and Road America, plus he won the Ontario race in 2023 from 15th on the grid. He sits fourth in points on 375.
The Bottom Line
Twelve drivers are still mathematically alive for the title, and Sunday is the last realistic place to take a swing at Palou before the schedule tilts toward tracks he already owns. A brand new street circuit with a hairpin, a split pit road, and no rubber down is the closest thing to a reset button IndyCar has left in 2026. Somebody is going to get the first Markham win, and it will be in the record book forever.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Ontario Honda Dealers Indy 2026?
Alex Palou is our pick and the points leader. He has won three of the four street races this season and finished second in the other one.
Is Alex Palou good at the Ontario Honda Dealers Indy?
He has never won it. In four starts at the Toronto version he finished 6th, 2nd, 4th, and 12th, and he led laps in three of those four races.
What time does the Ontario Honda Dealers Indy at Markham start?
Sunday, August 16, 2026. FOX coverage begins at noon ET and the green flag is scheduled for about 12:22 PM ET.
What channel is the Markham IndyCar race on?
FOX in the United States, with TSN carrying it in Canada. INDYCAR Radio and SiriusXM have the audio call.
How long is the Streets of Markham circuit?
It is 2.19 miles, or 3.52 kilometres, with 12 turns. The race is 90 laps and 197.1 miles.
Gear up for Sunday
If you are watching the first Markham race with friends, wear something that says you follow this series year round. A few things in stock right now:
- IndyCar Checkered Flag Sublimated T-Shirt
- Colton Herta No. 26 Andretti 1:18 die-cast, from the driver who won this race in 2024
- 109th Indianapolis 500 In Motion Blue Tee
- Back Home Again 109th Indianapolis 500 Tee
- Indianapolis 500 Snake Pit Tee
The full IndyCar collection is here whenever you want to browse.
