United States Grand Prix Pick 2026: Max Verstappen at COTA
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Formula 1 Track Preview - the Friday post where we skip the hype and look at what the numbers actually say about Sunday.
The Short Version
Formula 1 lands in Austin this weekend for the United States Grand Prix, round 18 of 23 at the Circuit of the Americas. Lights out is Sunday at 4:00 PM ET, and in the United States every session streams on Apple TV. This is a normal race weekend, not a sprint, so qualifying runs Saturday at 5:00 PM ET and it matters more here than almost anywhere else on the calendar. Kimi Antonelli arrives with a 102-point lead and a narrow shot at clinching the title, but the driver the data keeps pointing at for the win is Max Verstappen.
My Pick to Win
Max Verstappen - No. 1, Red Bull
Four wins in his last five Austin starts, seven straight COTA podiums, and back-to-back victories coming into the weekend.
The Circuit, and Why It Races the Way It Does
COTA is 3.426 miles, 20 corners, run counter-clockwise, and it climbs 133 feet from the start line up to Turn 1. That hill is the single most important piece of real estate on the lap. Drivers come out of the final corner, get the power down, and arrive at a blind left-hander with the braking zone hidden over a crest. It is the best passing spot on the circuit and the easiest place to lose a race.
The back half of the lap is a different problem. The Turn 3 to Turn 9 esses are a high-speed rhythm section that punishes any car that will not change direction, and the long back straight into Turn 12 gives you the second real overtaking zone. A car has to be good in two opposite ways here, and very few are.
One more wrinkle for 2026. DRS is gone. The new cars run active aerodynamics, switching between a high-downforce Z-mode in the corners and a low-drag X-mode on the straights, and the overtaking aid is now Manual Override, which hands a chasing driver up to 350 kW of extra electrical push once he is within a second. On a circuit with two long straights and a hill, that changes where passes actually happen. We dug into the full circuit profile in our COTA by the numbers breakdown if you want the deeper layout read.
Past Winners in Austin, and What They Have in Common
Thirteen United States Grands Prix have been run at COTA since 2012, with no race in 2020. Lewis Hamilton has the most Austin wins with five, and he also won the 2007 race at Indianapolis, which is where the "six US wins" number you will hear this weekend comes from. Verstappen has four.
The pattern that matters for a pick is where the winners started. Eleven of the thirteen COTA winners launched from the front row. Only two have won from deeper: Verstappen from sixth in 2023, and Charles Leclerc from fourth in 2024. Saturday is not a formality here.
Here is Verstappen's own Austin record over the last five runnings, which is the single strongest piece of evidence in this post.
| Year | Start | Finish | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1st | 1st | 25 |
| 2024 | 2nd | 3rd | 15 |
| 2023 | 6th | 1st | 25 |
| 2022 | 2nd | 1st | 25 |
| 2021 | 1st | 1st | 25 |
The Form Guide Heading Into Austin
Antonelli leads the championship with 340 points. Russell is second on 238, Hamilton third on 229, Verstappen fourth on 221, Leclerc fifth on 215 and Lando Norris sixth on 201. In the constructors' standings Mercedes sits on 578 points with 11 wins, ahead of Ferrari on 444, McLaren on 339 and Red Bull on 332.
Now look at the last five races instead of the full season. Verstappen has finished third at Monza, second in Madrid, second in Baku, first at Sepang and first at Marina Bay. That is five consecutive podiums and two straight wins. Antonelli's last five read first, first, fifth, second and third, which is still excellent but trending the wrong way at exactly the wrong time of year.
FP1 incoming... The United States Grand Prix weekend is about to get underway at COTA #F1 #USGP
— Formula 1 (@F1) October 23, 2026
My Pick to Win: Max Verstappen
Verstappen has been on the podium at every United States Grand Prix since 2018 and has won four of the last five. That is not a hot streak, it is a long-running fit between a driver and a circuit. Add two straight wins coming in and a Red Bull that has clearly found something in the second half of this season, and the case writes itself.
The caution is qualifying. Eleven of thirteen COTA winners started on the front row, and the forecast calls for light rain across the weekend with temperatures near 32 degrees Celsius, which can scramble Saturday. Verstappen started on pole in 2025 and won from sixth in 2023, so he has shown both routes. Call this an informed prediction, not a guarantee.
As for the title, Antonelli can mathematically clinch in Austin, but the path is narrow: he needs to win, with Russell ninth or worse and Hamilton fifth or worse. We broke down the full scenario in Antonelli Can Clinch the 2026 F1 Title in Austin.
Who Else Could Win
Charles Leclerc. The 2024 Austin winner and the only driver other than Verstappen to win here from outside the front row. He was second at Singapore and fourth in each of the two races before that.
Kimi Antonelli. Eight wins and the championship lead, but exactly one COTA start to his name, a 13th-place finish from seventh on the grid in 2025. A title-clinching weekend would also be his first good one in Austin.
Lewis Hamilton. Nobody in the field knows this place better. Five Austin wins, third in the standings, and a top-six finish in four of the last five races.
The Bottom Line
Austin rewards the same thing it has rewarded since 2012: a car that can live in the esses and a driver who gets the hill at Turn 1 right. Antonelli may walk away with the championship this season, but Sunday looks like Verstappen's race.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the United States Grand Prix 2026?
Our pick is Max Verstappen, who has won four of the last five races at the Circuit of the Americas and arrives on the back of two straight victories.
Is Max Verstappen good at COTA?
Yes. He has four Austin wins and has finished on the podium at every United States Grand Prix since 2018.
What time does the United States Grand Prix start?
Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. Qualifying is Saturday at 5:00 PM ET. It is not a sprint weekend.
How can I watch the United States Grand Prix in the US?
Every 2026 Formula 1 session streams on Apple TV in the United States under the sport's new five-year US media deal.
Can Antonelli clinch the F1 title in Austin?
Only in a narrow scenario. He leads Russell by 102 points with six races and no sprints left, so he needs to win with Russell ninth or worse and Hamilton fifth or worse.
Shop Formula 1 Gear
Race-weekend gear, in stock and ready to ship:
- F1 Red Bull Racing Special Edition Austin GP Bucket Hat - the Austin-specific Red Bull piece, and the call if you are riding with the pick.
- Red Bull Racing F1 Special Edition USA GP T-Shirt - another COTA throwback, in small and XXL.
- Scuderia Ferrari Garage Crew Tee - for the Leclerc and Hamilton side of the garage.
- Mercedes AMG Petronas George Russell 1:2 Scale Helmet - one left, and Russell is second in the championship.
- McLaren F1 New Era 9Fifty Camo Hat - papaya for the Norris and Piastri crowd.
More caps, tees and team gear are in the Formula 1 collection.
