YellaWood 500 Pick 2026: Tyler Reddick at Talladega
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Track Preview. Every Friday we break down the numbers behind Sunday's Cup Series race, dig through the record book, and make one pick to win.
The Short Version
The YellaWood 500 goes green Sunday, October 25 at 2:00 PM ET on NBC. It is 188 laps and 500.08 miles around the biggest oval in NASCAR, and it is race 34 of 36 with the championship separated by almost nothing. Talladega is the one track where a 40th-place car can lead the last lap, so the whole points race is hanging over a plate-track coin flip. If you are searching for YellaWood 500 picks 2026, this is the one number that matters: Tyler Reddick has an average finish of 5.4 on drafting tracks this season.
My Pick to Win
Tyler Reddick - No. 45, 23XI Racing
Best drafting-track average in the field at 5.4, six wins in 2026, and he won at Talladega in 2024.
The track, and why Talladega races the way it does
Talladega is 2.66 miles around, which makes it the longest oval NASCAR runs. The corners are banked 33 degrees. The tri-oval is 16.5 degrees and the straights are almost flat at 2 degrees. Those numbers are the whole story. The banking is steep enough that drivers never have to lift, so the entire field runs flat out for 500 miles in one giant pack.
That is why the cars get slowed down on purpose. For 2026 the superspeedway package was reworked twice. NASCAR cut horsepower to 465 and shrank the rear spoiler, first at Daytona in August and then again for Talladega, where the spoiler blade is down to 3.5 inches. The engine runs a 27/32-inch tapered spacer. Less power and less downforce means the car behind can actually get a run on the car ahead instead of just sitting in line. The goal was more passing and less track position.
The stage breakdown is worth a look, because it is not the old setup. Stage one runs 98 laps. Stage two is 45. Stage three is 45. That is a long opening run where nothing is on the line, then two short sprints back to back. Expect a sleepy first half and a frantic last 90 laps.
Past winners and the Talladega record book
Eight different drivers have won the last eight Cup races here. That is the cleanest argument there is for why Talladega NASCAR favorites rarely mean much. Chase Briscoe is the defending YellaWood 500 winner from October 2025. Carson Hocevar won the spring race in April for his first Talladega victory.
The all-time record still belongs to Dale Earnhardt with 10 Cup wins at Talladega. Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski are tied for second with six each. And the fastest qualifying lap in NASCAR history happened right here: Bill Elliott at 212.809 mph in April 1987. Restrictor plates showed up the next season and that number has not been touched since.
Here is Tyler Reddick's own history at Talladega, which is the table DFS players and anyone looking at NASCAR DFS picks for the YellaWood 500 should actually read:
| Year | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 spring | 1 | 14 | 2 |
| 2025 fall | 15 | 7 | 3 |
| 2025 spring | 26 | 14 | 0 |
| 2024 fall | 14 | 20 | 2 |
| 2024 spring | 18 | 1 | 13 |
Start and finish from official race results. Laps led counted from NASCAR lap-times data.
The championship math going in
The 2026 Chase has no elimination rounds and no Championship 4. All 16 drivers stay eligible to the end, and whoever has the most points after Homestead is the champion. That makes every single point live, and it makes Talladega terrifying for the leaders.
Kyle Larson leads with 2,370 points. Christopher Bell is five back. Chase Briscoe is 24 back, Denny Hamlin 31, Ryan Blaney 40, Joey Logano 44 and Tyler Reddick 56. Seven drivers inside 56 points with three races left. A win pays 55 points. One wreck here flips the whole order, which is exactly why Talladega is the most dangerous race on the calendar for a points leader.
My Pick to Win
Tyler Reddick. The report card above is the argument. Across five drafting-track races in 2026 he has an average finish of 5.4 and a median of third, and that is far and away his best track type. He won the Daytona 500 in February, won Atlanta a week later, ran third at Daytona in August and eighth at Atlanta in July. Nobody in this field reads a pack better right now.
The rest of the case is form. Reddick leads all of NASCAR with six wins in 2026 and he just won last Sunday at Phoenix. He has already won a Cup race at Talladega, taking the spring 2024 event after leading 13 laps. He is also 56 points out with three to go, which means he has every reason to go for the win instead of riding in line and protecting a finish. If you want Tyler Reddick odds at Talladega in 2026, the data says he should be near the top of the board.
The honest caveat: his one weak drafting result this year was Talladega in April, where he started on the pole and finished 14th. That is Talladega. This is a prediction, not a guarantee, and anyone telling you they know who wins the YellaWood 500 in 2026 is guessing.
Who else could win?
Chase Briscoe. He is the defending YellaWood 500 winner and he has three wins in 2026 including back-to-back at Las Vegas and Charlotte. He sits third in points and knows exactly how to win this race.
Ryan Blaney. Three wins this season and a Talladega winner in the fall of 2023. Penske cars have been good in the draft for years and he is only 40 points out of the lead.
Carson Hocevar. He won here in April. Spire has figured something out on the big tracks, and he is the kind of driver who will shove the issue on the last lap with nothing to lose.
The track is already live this weekend. Trucks ran Friday, Xfinity goes Saturday, and the Cup cars close it out Sunday:
Isn't it Love'sly? 💛
— Talladega Superspeedway (@TALLADEGA) October 23, 2026
It's #LovesRVStop225 Race Day!
The Bottom Line
Eight races, eight different winners, and a championship separated by 56 points heading into the biggest coin flip on the schedule. Reddick has the best drafting-track numbers in the garage and the most reason to swing. Take him, then hold your breath for 188 laps.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the YellaWood 500 2026?
Our pick is Tyler Reddick, who has a 5.4 average finish on drafting tracks this season and leads the Cup Series with six wins in 2026.
Is Tyler Reddick good at Talladega?
He won here in the spring of 2024 and finished seventh in last October's race, though he has also had two finishes of 14th or worse in his last three Talladega starts.
What time does the YellaWood 500 start?
Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET from Talladega Superspeedway.
What channel is the YellaWood 500 on?
NBC, with radio coverage on MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
How many laps is the YellaWood 500?
188 laps and 500.08 miles, broken into stages ending on laps 98, 143 and 188.
Gear Up for Talladega
If you are riding with the pick on Sunday, here is what is in stock right now:
- Tyler Reddick 3CHI trucker mesh hat - throwback lid for the guy we are picking to win.
- Chase Briscoe 2025 Talladega winner tee - the shirt from the last YellaWood 500.
- Carson Hocevar 2026 Spectrum scheme tee - he won the spring race here.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. SunnyD mesh hat - 2024 YellaWood 500 winner by 0.006 seconds.
- Dale Earnhardt GM Goodwrench hoodie - 10 Talladega wins, still the record.
More in the full collection, or grab a win shirt subscription and get the winner's shirt sent to you after every race.
