Singapore GP Pick 2026: George Russell at Marina Bay
Part of the Happy Hour Racing Formula 1 Track Preview series, where we look at the numbers behind Sunday's race and make a data-based call on who wins.
The Short Version
The Singapore Grand Prix is round 17 of 23, and it runs Sunday October 11 at 8:00 AM ET from the Marina Bay Street Circuit. Apple TV carries every session in the United States. This is the first time Singapore has ever run a sprint, so there is a 21-lap race on Saturday on top of the 62-lap Grand Prix on Sunday. Kimi Antonelli leads the championship by 84 points, but he was only seventh in sprint qualifying, and his Mercedes teammate was second.
My Pick to Win
George Russell - No. 63, Mercedes
He won here last year from pole, he holds the Marina Bay qualifying record, and pole has won 11 of the 16 Singapore Grands Prix ever run.
The circuit, and why Marina Bay races the way it does
Marina Bay is 4.927 km of public road with 19 corners and almost no runoff. The walls are right there. That one fact shapes everything about the weekend, because a mistake here is not a spin through the gravel, it is a broken car and a safety car.
The track got shorter in 2023 when the old Float section came out and a long straight down Raffles Avenue went in. Lap times dropped by around 20 seconds. The race still takes close to two hours because there is so little full-throttle running, and the heat and humidity make it the most physical race on the calendar. Lewis Hamilton has said it takes double the effort of Monaco.
Pirelli brought its three softest tyres, the C3, C4 and C5. Soft rubber plus a street surface plus 62 laps is how you get a race where strategy flips on one safety car.
One more thing that matters for 2026. There is no DRS any more. The new cars run active front and rear wings that switch between a high-downforce Z-mode for the corners and a low-drag X-mode for the straights, plus an electric Override boost a driver can use when he is within a second of the car ahead. On a track this tight, that boost down Raffles Avenue is about the only real passing tool anyone has.
Who wins in Singapore
If you are looking for Marina Bay F1 favorites, start with the grid sheet. Pole has converted to the win in 11 of the 16 Singapore Grands Prix. Sebastian Vettel has the most Singapore wins with five. Hamilton has four. Nobody passes here, so Saturday night usually decides Sunday night.
Here is how my pick has gone at this track. The last two years are the ones that count, because they are on the current layout with the current car.
| Year | Start | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1st | 1st | Won from pole |
| 2024 | 4th | 4th | Finished |
| 2023 | 2nd | 16th | Retired |
| 2022 | Pit lane | 14th | Two laps down |
| 2019 | 18th | 20th | Collision |
The sprint changes the whole weekend
Singapore has never run a sprint before, and this is the sixth and last one of 2026. Teams get one hour of practice on Friday and then go straight into sprint qualifying. That is an hour to set up a car for the bumpiest, hottest, least forgiving track on the calendar. Get it wrong Friday and you are stuck with it.
Max Verstappen already banked the first piece. He took sprint pole on Friday with a 1:31.156, a tenth and a bit clear of Russell, and kept it after the stewards looked at a yellow-flag incident and let it go. The sprint itself is 21 laps on Saturday at 5:00 AM ET, with Grand Prix qualifying four hours later at 9:00 AM ET.
My pick to win the Singapore Grand Prix 2026
I am taking George Russell. The case is simple. He won this race last year from pole, he owns the Marina Bay qualifying record at 1:29.158, and pole wins here more than two thirds of the time. He also has five poles in 2026, second only to Antonelli, and all three of his wins this year came from pole. He was second in sprint qualifying by 0.120s.
Update, Friday night: One fact this pick has to carry. Russell needed new power unit parts after his engine failed late in Malaysia, and that penalty sends him to the back of the grid for Sunday's Grand Prix no matter where he qualifies. So this is not a pole-to-flag call any more. It is a call that his older-spec car, half a second quicker than Antonelli's in sprint qualifying, is fast enough to carve through the field on a track where passing is hard. Russell called his plan "all-out attack." The penalty does not touch Saturday's sprint, where he starts second. Source: Formula1.com.
The other half of it is what Mercedes did with the cars. The team split packages this weekend, putting Russell in the older spec and Antonelli in a new upgrade. Antonelli qualified seventh and called the car unpredictable and hard to put a lap together. Russell said the car felt competitive from the first laps of practice. When one side of a garage is fighting the thing and the other is not, back the one who is not.
This is a prediction, not a promise. Singapore has a long history of safety cars rearranging the race, and a 21-lap sprint the day before is one more chance for something to break.
Who else could win
Max Verstappen. He has sprint pole and he won last week. The catch is the one stat that will not go away: nine Singapore starts, zero wins, three second places. This track has never been his.
Lando Norris. The best raw Marina Bay form in the field. He has finished 4th, 2nd, 1st and 3rd in his last four starts here and he won it in 2024. He was fifth in sprint qualifying.
Charles Leclerc. Third in sprint qualifying and a Singapore pole-sitter twice before. He has never won here either, but he has been on the front row more than once.
The Bottom Line
Everyone will tell you the championship is Antonelli's, and the math mostly agrees, since he leads by 84 with 183 points still on the table. But he cannot clinch it this weekend no matter what happens, and this weekend he is in the car that does not work. Singapore rewards the driver who puts it on pole and drives away from everybody. Right now that driver is his teammate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Singapore Grand Prix 2026?
Our pick is George Russell, who won at Marina Bay last year from pole and holds the circuit qualifying record. Max Verstappen took sprint pole on Friday and is the main threat.
Is George Russell good at Marina Bay?
Yes. He won the 2025 Singapore Grand Prix from pole, finished fourth in 2024, and set the circuit's fastest qualifying lap at 1:29.158.
What time does the Singapore Grand Prix start?
Sunday October 11, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET, which is 8:00 PM local time in Singapore. The race is 62 laps.
What channel is the Singapore Grand Prix on in the US?
Apple TV. It is the exclusive US home of Formula 1 starting in 2026 and carries every practice, sprint, qualifying session and race.
Is there a sprint race at the 2026 Singapore Grand Prix?
Yes, and it is the first one Singapore has ever held. The 21-lap sprint runs Saturday October 10 at 5:00 AM ET, with Grand Prix qualifying at 9:00 AM ET.
Race day gear
If you are pulling for the pick on Sunday, here is what we have in stock right now.
- Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 George Russell 1:2 Scale Helmet - one left
- Mercedes AMG Petronas Formula One Team Polka Dot Polo, Black
- Red Bull Racing Official Formula 1 Hoodie, Grey
- McLaren F1 Lifestyle New Era 9Fifty Camo Baseball Hat
- Scuderia Ferrari Garage Crew T-Shirt
More caps in the F1 hats collection.
