Italian GP Pick 2026: George Russell at Monza
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Friday Track Preview - where we skip the hot takes and let the numbers tell you who is actually going to win on Sunday.
The Short Version
Our Italian GP pick for 2026 is George Russell. Round 13 runs Sunday, September 6 at Monza, 9:00 AM ET, 53 laps of the fastest circuit on the calendar. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli takes a fifth Mercedes power unit this weekend and starts from the back of the grid, which pulls the fastest qualifier of the season out of the fight for pole. Monza has handed 11 of its last 20 wins to the driver who started first, and Russell was quickest in Friday practice.
Monza Rewards Pole More Than Almost Anywhere
Everybody calls Monza the Temple of Speed and pictures slipstream battles into the first chicane. The record book says something more boring and more useful: if you want to win here, qualify first. Across the last 20 Italian Grands Prix, 11 winners started on pole and 15 of 20 started in the top two. Only two winners in 20 years came from outside the top five, and both of those were chaos races - Pierre Gasly from 10th in 2020 and Max Verstappen from 7th in 2022.
The reason is simple. Monza is 5.793 kilometres and 11 corners with very little to slow you down. There is a 476-metre braking zone from pole into the first chicane, which is where the field bunches up and where a leader who gets away clean is basically gone. Last year's race produced 47 overtakes, and most of them happened behind the leader, not for it.
Who Actually Has the Pole Speed in 2026
If Saturday decides Sunday, then the question is who is fast over one lap. Mercedes has taken 10 of the 12 pole positions this season. Antonelli has six of them, Russell has four, and Lando Norris owns the other two, both from the last two race weekends.
Friday backed that up. Charles Leclerc led opening practice for Ferrari at 1m23.008s, then Russell answered in the afternoon with a 1m22.559s. Leclerc was 0.120s back, Antonelli 0.141s, Norris 0.384s, Lewis Hamilton 0.457s. Verstappen was ninth and nearly a second off.
Our top three in FP2
- Formula 1 (@F1) September 4, 2026
Russell
Leclerc
Antonelli#F1 #ItalianGP
The Antonelli Problem: The Points Leader Starts Last
This is the whole weekend in one sentence. Kimi Antonelli arrives at his home race leading the championship by 59 points over Russell and Hamilton, and he is going to start dead last. Mercedes is fitting his fifth power unit of the season, which triggers an automatic back-of-the-grid penalty, and they chose to spend it here on purpose. Team boss Toto Wolff put it plainly: "Our calculations say that that's the best track to take it."
It makes cold sense. Monza has the longest straights and the biggest tow on the calendar, so it is the cheapest place to serve a grid drop. "Given that I'm starting last, it's going to be full attack," Antonelli said, naming a realistic target of a top-five finish. Fifth place costs him only a handful of points to Russell, and he would still lead comfortably.
The romance of it stings, though. Antonelli is Italian, and according to Formula 1 he is the first Italian driver to arrive at Monza leading the standings in more than 70 years. The last Italian to actually win the Italian Grand Prix was Ludovico Scarfiotti for Ferrari, 60 years ago this week, on September 4, 1966. That drought is not ending on Sunday from 20th on the grid.
Monza Career Numbers for the Contenders
Here is the uncomfortable part of our own pick. Russell has seven Monza starts and has never won here. His best result is third in 2022. The drivers with real Monza pedigree are the ones chasing him:
- Lewis Hamilton - 19 starts, 5 wins, 7 poles, more than anyone in this field. His last Monza win was 2018 and he has not finished better than fifth here since 2019.
- Max Verstappen - 11 starts, 3 wins, including last year's from pole. He also has zero wins in 2026 and was ninth on Friday.
- Charles Leclerc - 8 starts, 2 wins, in 2019 and 2024. Fastest on Friday morning, second on Friday afternoon, driving for the home team.
- Lando Norris - 7 starts, no wins, but three podiums and the outright lap record of 1m20.901s set here in 2025. He has won the last two races from pole.
- George Russell - 7 starts, no wins, best of third. Fastest man on Friday.
Ferrari is the wildcard. The Scuderia brought a second aero upgrade here and sits 87 points behind Mercedes in the constructors' standings, so a home win is worth more to them than to anyone. Hamilton and Leclerc will run tribute suits marking 30 years since Michael Schumacher's first Monza win. If a home crowd and a fresh upgrade are worth a tenth, Leclerc wins this race.
Our Pick: George Russell
We are taking Russell, and the reasoning is all in the pattern. Monza pays the pole sitter more than almost any circuit on the calendar. Mercedes has taken 10 of 12 poles this year. The one Mercedes driver who has out-qualified Russell all season is starting from the back. Russell was fastest on Friday, he has already won twice in 2026, and he only needs to convert what the car is already giving him.
If we are wrong, it is Leclerc, because Ferrari's upgrade found a tenth in a straight line and the tifosi got the Sunday they came for. Norris is third on our list only because Hungary and Zandvoort are high-downforce circuits and Monza is the exact opposite. Two wins on grippy tracks does not automatically carry over to the lowest-drag weekend of the year.
One thing to file away. Monza carries a 50 percent safety car probability and a 24.14-second pit loss, and Pirelli's C3, C4 and C5 tyres point at a one-stop. That combination is how a Gasly wins from 10th. If the safety car lands in the wrong window, throw this article out.
The Bottom Line
Monza is a qualifying race, Mercedes owns qualifying in 2026, and the Mercedes who normally takes pole is starting last. That leaves George Russell the clearest path to a win he has never had here. Antonelli will still leave Italy leading the championship, but on Sunday the numbers point at the other side of the Mercedes garage.
Saturday's Happy Hour Racing race preview digs into the storylines and what to watch, and if you want the circuit itself broken down corner by corner, read our Monza by the numbers circuit guide. Lights out is Sunday at 9:00 AM ET, with qualifying Saturday at 10:00 AM ET.
Riding with our pick this weekend? Grab the Mercedes AMG Petronas George Russell 1:2 scale helmet. Backing the home team instead? The Scuderia Ferrari garage crew tee is the Monza uniform. McLaren fans riding Norris's two-race streak can pick up the McLaren New Era 9Fifty camo cap, Mercedes fans have the Mercedes-AMG Petronas x Mad Dog Jones ball cap, and if you still believe in the three-time Monza winner, there is the Verstappen RB16B 1:18 model car. New F1 data previews drop every Friday.
