Freeway Insurance 500 Pick 2026: Ryan Blaney at Phoenix
Welcome to the Happy Hour Racing Track Preview, where we look at the numbers behind Sunday's race before the green flag drops. Track facts, past winners, and one pick we are willing to put our name on.
The Short Version
The Cup Series goes to Phoenix Raceway on Sunday for the Freeway Insurance 500, race 33 of 36 and the seventh of the ten Chase races. It is 312 laps around a flat one-mile oval, green flag at 3:00 p.m. ET on USA. Ryan Blaney has won the last two Cup races here and sits fifth in points, 85 back of Kyle Larson with four races left. If you are looking for who wins the Freeway Insurance 500 2026, the track record points at one guy.
My Pick to Win
Ryan Blaney - No. 12, Team Penske
He has won the last two Cup races at Phoenix and comes in with three straight top fives.
The Track and Why It Races the Way It Does
Phoenix is a one-mile oval in Avondale, Arizona, and it is nearly flat. Turns 1 and 2 are banked 9 degrees. Turns 3 and 4 are banked 11 degrees. The straights sit between 3 and 9 degrees. For comparison, Bristol is banked around 28 degrees. Flat banking means the track does not help the car turn. The driver and the tires have to do all of it.
The other thing that makes Phoenix odd is the dogleg. The frontstretch is not straight. It bends, which gives drivers a different corner entry on one end of the track than the other. Turns 1 and 2 are tight and flat. Turns 3 and 4 are wider and carry a little more banking. Drivers have to be good at two different corners in the same lap.
Add the 2026 rules package on top of that. Every track 1.5 miles and shorter now runs 750 horsepower instead of 670, with the low-downforce short-track aero kit and its 3-inch spoiler. More power, less grip, flat corners. Cars slide. Tires give up. That is why Phoenix produces long green-flag runs broken up by a pile of cautions.
Past Winners and the History That Matters
Kevin Harvick owns this place. He won nine Cup races at Phoenix, more than anyone, and nobody active is close. Among drivers still running, Joey Logano leads with four wins. Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney have two each.
The recent list tells a simpler story. Phoenix has a lot of repeat winners and very few surprises. Six of the last ten Cup races here went to just three drivers: Blaney, Bell and Logano. Historically about 60 percent of Phoenix winners started inside the top ten, so qualifying on Friday actually matters here in a way it does not at a superspeedway.
Here is Blaney's record at Phoenix over his last four starts. This is the table the DFS players and the bettors go looking for.
| Year | Start | Finish | Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (March) | 5 | 1 | 28 |
| 2025 (November) | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 2025 (March) | 12 | 28 | 0 |
| 2024 (November) | 17 | 2 | 0 |
Drivers to Watch
Kyle Larson comes in with the points lead and the best average finish of any driver at Phoenix at 10.0. Denny Hamlin is right behind him at 10.4 with four poles here, and he led 208 laps in the 2025 race without winning it. Christopher Bell led 175 of 312 laps in the spring race here and finished second. Any of the three can win on Sunday, and Bell is co-favorite with Blaney at most books.
He's won back-to-back races at @phoenixraceway. Another win on Sunday would be huge for @Blaney's championship hopes.
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 16, 2026
My Pick to Win
Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Ford. He won the November 2025 race here in overtime and then won again in March, which makes him the only driver in the last ten Phoenix races to go back to back. Over nine short-track races in 2026 his median finish is sixth, and two of his three wins this season came on tracks running this same 750-horsepower package. He also arrives hot, with three straight top fives for the first time all season.
The case against him is simple. He is 85 points behind Larson with four races to go, so he needs wins and not just good days. The good news for Blaney is that this is the right track to go get one. Phoenix rewards a car that is good on a long run, and Team Penske has been the best team here for two races straight. Call it an informed prediction, not a guarantee. Phoenix threw twelve cautions in March, and a flat one-mile track with 38 cars on it does not care about anyone's data.
Who Else Could Win?
Christopher Bell. He won the spring race here in both 2024 and 2025 and led the most laps in March before Blaney got by him with ten to go. He has the speed, he just has not closed lately.
Kyle Larson. The points leader has the best average finish of anybody at Phoenix and won here in 2021. He does not need a win, which may make him race smarter than everyone chasing him.
Joey Logano. Four Phoenix wins, more than any active driver. He is sixth in points and has said he likely needs to win twice in the final four. Nobody should be shocked if one of those comes Sunday.
The Bottom Line
Phoenix is flat, it is a one-mile track with two different ends, and it has handed the same handful of drivers the trophy over and over. Blaney has won the last two. Until somebody beats him here, picking against him is the harder argument to make.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the Freeway Insurance 500 2026?
Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell are listed as co-favorites, and our pick is Blaney, who has won the last two Cup races at Phoenix.
Is Ryan Blaney good at Phoenix Raceway?
Yes. Blaney has two Cup wins at Phoenix, both in the last two races there, and an average finish of about 10.4 across 21 career starts at the track.
What time does the Freeway Insurance 500 start?
Green flag is Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
What channel is the Freeway Insurance 500 on?
USA Network, with radio on MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio channel 90.
How many laps is the Freeway Insurance 500?
312 laps, which is 312 miles or 500 kilometers. Stages end on laps 60 and 185.
Race Day Gear
If you are pulling for the pick on Sunday, these are in stock right now:
- Ryan Blaney No. 12 2026 New Hampshire 301 win shirt
- Ryan Blaney No. 12 2025 Phoenix finale win shirt, the one from the race that started this streak
- Ryan Blaney No. 12 2026 Atlanta win shirt
- Christopher Bell No. 20 Bristol night race win shirt
- Joey Logano No. 22 2026 Bristol night race win shirt
- Kyle Larson No. 5 HendrickCars pit hat
Win shirts only show up after the checkered flag, so if your driver gets one on Sunday, check back. You can also see the whole store at happyhourracing.com.
